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Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images

For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth by Democrats unhappy with the deal to reopen the federal government, and for all the talk about a Democratic “civil war,” pretty much everyone in the party agrees the longest government shutdown in history didn’t work out that well for them. The lawmakers who “caved” and voted to end the stalemate thought there was no real chance to secure any of the big concessions they had originally demanded — particularly an Obamacare-subsidy extension. Those who didn’t want to cave despaired of giving up with so little to show for the effort. Some in the latter camp appeared to have objected not so much to the surrender but its timing; giving in so soon after the big November 4 Democratic election sweep effectively killed the vibe.

Unfortunately, Democrats won’t have much time to sort through the ashes of the saga before they face another decision point. Funding for the federal government (aside from the agencies covered by the three freestanding appropriations bills included in the reopening package) will expire again on January 30 as both parties begin to gear up for the 2026 midterm elections. What will congressional Democrats do then, particularly if the activists and influencers who are currently so angry at “Senate sellouts” remain convinced their representatives need to do much more to stand up to Trump? Do they filibuster another GOP spending bill at the risk of triggering another shutdown? And if so, will they do a better job of developing strategic benchmarks for an acceptable conclusion? Or is January close enough to the midterms that Democrats will simply stand pat and count on voters to bust up Trump’s governing trifecta in November?

Overall, the odds that Democrats will choose to repeat the experience they just underwent are low. Here are several questions Democrats have to consider that will determine what happens when the current deal runs out at the end of January.

What happens with the Obamacare-subsidy vote next month?

A side deal accompanied the bill to reopen the government: a commitment from Senate Majority Leader John Thune to hold a vote by the second week in December on extending Obamacare subsidies. There were not, as far as we know, many details agreed to, other than Thune’s public comments that a one-year extension, perhaps with conditions (such as potentially deal-killing abortion restrictions), will be on the table, subject to negotiations beginning now. There is not, notably, any commitment whatsoever from House Republicans to hold a vote on these subsidies. And so far, Trump, whom Democrats had hoped would impose an Obamacare-subsidy extension on his troops, has categorically refused even to talk about it (instead, he has been bitching about Obamacare itself). Suffice it to say the odds of enacted legislation extending Obamacare subsidies before the expiration takes effect on January 1 are low. But having bitten that bullet, Republicans are very unlikely to give in to demands that they reverse course in late January. So unless Democrats simply want to make sure every single American knows about the GOP’s hostility to the subsidies, there’s not much point in again triggering a government shutdown keyed to this issue.

What other outrages will Trump commit between now and late January?

Part of the deal to reopen the government was a ban on the kind of public-employee layoffs the administration has threatened and sometimes carried out in 2025. That’s a significant curb on the authoritarian outrages that had a lot to do with Democrats’ decision to risk a government shutdown at the end of September. Will Trump comply with this ban? Will he and his government-hating OMB director, Ross Vought, come up with new ways to attack congressionally authorized federal programs and the employees who work for them without obtaining the legal authority to do so? And on a separate front entirely, will Trump have taken other actions (e.g., sending military forces into more Democratic-run cities or intensifying the brutality of ICE/Border Control mass-deportation measures) signaling indifference to laws and the Constitution that will require some dramatic Democratic gesture in protest?

Will the Supreme Court green-light more Trump power grabs?

While this possible development may not come to pass until the end of the current Supreme Court term in June or July, a significant number of cases and emergency appeals are pending before or heading toward the U.S. Supreme Court that could have a major bearing on Trump’s efforts to build a truly imperial presidency. These include challenges to his tariff authority, objections to his deployment of National Guard units, possible curbs on his use of emergency powers, a potential scrapping of Voting Rights Act protections against massive racial gerrymandering, and much more. If congressional Democrats get the sense they are the only obstacle to creeping authoritarianism and/or that Trump will be allowed to rig the 2026 midterms, they may be willing to throw themselves in the way by shutting down a government that has become fully enemy turf.

What does public opinion look like?

Trump is an unpopular president whose unpopularity has only deepened during the latest government shutdown, in part because of incessant Democratic messaging about his destructive and callous health-care policies. Trump believes the shutdown was largely responsible for the 2025 election debacle, which suggests he may be eager to avoid another and that Democrats may be willing to welcome a reprise. But public opinion can be fickle. If Trump’s unpopularity continues to intensify, particularly if it stems from largely nonlegislative causes like his inability to deal with higher living costs or a backlash against Stephen Miller’s reckless war on Blue America, Democrats may prefer to let the GOP stew in its own juices rather than drawing undue attention to themselves. At the same time, if it looks as if the House or even the Senate is in a position to flip in the midterms, Republicans may pick fights all year long in an effort to polarize the electorate in their favor and then Democrats could be forced to fight back.

Who sets strategy for congressional Democrats in 2026?

If we learned anything from both the March debacle when Democrats threatened but then abandoned a government-shutdown bid and the actual shutdown now ending, it’s that coming up with a legislative strategy that unites Democrats in and out of Congress is really hard. That’s true in part because there is no recognized party leadership (there rarely is unless your party controls the White House) and because there will inevitably be differences of opinion between senators who actually have the power to obstruct the majority party and House members whose job is mostly to lose vote after vote while making as much noise as possible. Another problem that’s particularly pressing right now is that Chuck Schumer, an already weak Senate leader, has been weakened further by the end of the shutdown and may not survive for long. The absence of a clear strategy and an agreement on how the shutdown should end was obvious all along. There’s no reason to assume more effective congressional leadership will arise next year.

This last factor could lead to exactly the kind of decisions that brought Democrats to their current position in Congress or convince them to turn over the job of fighting Trump to the party base and the midterm electorate.

Democrats Face Huge Decisions Before the Next Shutdown Cliff

Democrats Face Huge Decisions Before the Next Shutdown Cliff