Photo: Ricardo Arduengo/Reuters
One of the genuine surprises of Donald Trump’s second term has been his recent fixation on foreign policy. He always claimed he would be an “America First” president whose only real interest in a grubby world full of Euro-wimps and “shithole countries” was to make them all leave us alone. He clearly hasn’t changed his dim view of foreigners, but he does crave a legacy as someone who simultaneously ended multiple conflicts and made his country the most powerful military machine in human history. Lest we forget, Trump 2.0 actually, if briefly, went to war with Iran in a step that momentarily disturbed many MAGA followers. But he may be up to something far more dangerous to his reputation as a xenophobic quasi isolationist: an invasion of Venezuela for the purpose of toppling its leftist regime.
If that happens at all, I’m sure the idea behind it would be a quick surgical strike to kill or otherwise disable the leadership of Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Trump probably wants a war like the brief, half-forgotten 1990 invasion of Panama to depose Manuel Noriega or LBJ’s 1965 invasion of the Dominican Republic to end alleged Cuban control of its government. Like those “excursions,” an invasion of Venezuela may be rationalized by Trump as a sort of neighborhood cleanup project. But does he risk the unity of a MAGA movement that really does take “America First” seriously? Will they happily go to war with their president?
So far, the answer seems to be somewhere between “maybe” and “yes.” As The Atlantic’s Conor Friedersdorf notes, a recent CBS–You Gov poll showed two-thirds of self-identified MAGA Republicans would support “military action in Venezuela.” That’s a significantly higher percentage than among non-MAGA Republicans, who oppose the idea by a narrow margin. But there are some outspoken opponents of a Venezuelan adventure, most notably Kentucky’s libertarianish senator Rand Paul and MAGA godfather Steve Bannon. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Laura Loomer definitely hate each other with an abiding passion, but they agree a South American war is a bad idea. Yes, it’s possible Trump could crush Maduro with ease, declare victory, hold a big parade in Washington, and turn to other matters. But some in his circle are probably aware George W. Bush’s team was bullish on an Iraq invasion as well.
Team Trump seems, however, to have learned one important lesson from its Republican predecessors: If you are trying to talk your country into war, make it a matter of self-defense and an extension of the domestic politics Americans mostly care about. In W.’s case, the war-seeking administration invented a WMD threat to the American homeland and treated the invasion of Iraq as merely an extension of the U.S. response to 9/11. Yes, there was a lot of rhetoric about spreading the blessings of democracy to a land suffering from tyranny, but Team W. was initially careful not to bite off more than it could chew … until it did once the Iraq occupation turned into a disastrous quagmire.
Perhaps “saving” Venezuela with its ready-to-rule opposition party will be a simpler project. But just in case, Team Trump is deploying multiple arguments to make this seem like a defensive war completely in line with the administration’s domestic policies. First and most obviously, this administration has long treated drug smuggling as a military, not a law-enforcement, challenge, with smugglers regarded as “invaders” rather than mere criminals. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s dubious claim that Maduro is the leader of the drug gang known as Cartel de los Soles will be central to any case for war with Venezuela.
Second, while Maduro has recently begun cooperating with the repatriation of migrants from his country deported by the U.S., Trump has a long-standing grievance over Venezuelan immigration (one of his first acts in his second term was to suspend temporary protection for Venezuelan migrants). He has also treated migration as a national security threat warranting military involvement.
And third, Maduro is a socialist, which in MAGA terms makes him a communist and thus part of the national security threat “communists” have long posed to America.
There’s a fourth domestic rationale for going to war with Venezuela that the administration denies but privately must be discussing: Installing a friendly regime in Caracas would give U.S.-based oil companies access to some of the largest petroleum reserves on the planet. Keep in mind that reducing energy prices by vastly increasing the production and use of fossil fuels is central to Trump’s economic policies. It’s probably his only real strategy for reducing inflation. Don’t be surprised if he comes right out and tells his conflicted supporters that invading Venezuela will lower the cost not just of gasoline or heating oil but of a vast array of other products with energy costs built in.
Then again, it’s also possible the U.S. military buildup in the region and the regular sinking of “drug boats” is a feint, a distraction, or even a concession to a War secretary who seems to have a deep psychological need to kill people, or to his rival Rubio, who thought the Iraq War was dandy. But if Trump does go to war with Venezuela, there will be a propaganda war to convince MAGA folks it’s all part of the plan to restore American Greatness.
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