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Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The 2026 congressional races have barely begun, but in Texas the midterms start now. Since the state has an early March 3 primary, the filing date for 2026 candidates is today. That’s partly why the U.S. Supreme Court rushed last week to resolve the legal dispute over the Republicans’ Texas-gerrymandering push, giving Donald Trump a big boost by letting a map favoring the GOP go into effect. Now there’s been another Texas-elections bombshell, with Democrat Colin Allred abandoning a race that could help flip control of the U.S. Senate the same day Jasmine Crockett entered the race.

Texas Republicans appear headed to a fractious and insanely expensive three-way Senate primary involving incumbent Senator John Cornyn, MAGA favorite and state attorney general Ken Paxton, and U.S. representative Wesley Hunt. Democrats have had their own primary drama, with 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, 2018 Senate and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke, 2025 media star James Talarico, and national grassroots-progressive favorite and U.S. representative Jasmine Crockett all plotting bids at some point.

In recent weeks, O’Rourke has been backing away from a Senate primary he would likely lose. And today an even bigger domino fell when Allred announced he would drop his Senate candidacy and instead run for a newly created Democratic-leaning U.S. House seat. Hours later Crockett filed her own Senate candidacy paperwork.

The dual moves create a Crockett-Talarico primary that could be close and attention grabbing but not necessarily uncivil. Texas requires runoffs if primaries don’t produce a majority winner. So while Republicans will likely be holding a red-hot runoff race in late May, Democrats can at least lock in their nominee and begin uniting for the general election in March.

While Allred will earn some good will from Texas Democrats for making the Senate field less complicated, his House bid will anger supporters of freshman Democratic representative Julie Johnson, who is already running in the newly gerrymandered Dallas-area district where Allred has now filed (and where he currently lives):

Rumors say Colin Allred may quit the Senate race to challenge @juliejohnsonTX. At a time when Trump and the GOP target the #LGBTQ community, the last thing a Democrat should do is try to unseat the first openly LGBTQ Member of Congress from Texas. Unconscionable.

— Equality PAC (@lgbtequalitypac) December 8, 2025

Meanwhile, a prospective Crockett-Talarico Democratic Senate primary would represent a high-profile clash between two very media-savvy relative newcomers to the political spotlight. Talarico was first elected to the Texas legislature in 2018 at the age of 29 and became something of a celebrity spokesman for Democratic legislators during the tense struggle that led to this past summer’s congressional gerrymander. A former schoolteacher who is currently attending a seminary, Talarico is well known both as a religiously observant critic of Christian nationalism and as someone with a distinct appeal across party lines (he famously appeared with and was praised by manosphere titan Joe Rogan). Crockett is probably even better known as a fiery and witty confrontationist in Congress and on social media. Talarico is a white guy from the Austin area and affects some old-school populist stylings. Crockett is Black and has represented a majority-minority district in Dallas since 2022. They offer Texas voters two “new generation” options. Crockett is considered the most likely primary winner, but Talarico could be stronger in a general election.

It’s anybody’s guess at this early point whether Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping Cornyn’s Senate seat, but the GOP primary and (likely) runoff will give them an opening as Cornyn and Paxton tear each other apart with Hunt hoping to pick up the pieces. Despite regular hopes surrounding past statewide candidates like O’Rourke and Allred, Texas Democrats haven’t won a statewide election since 1994. Maybe Republican hubris, an anti-Trump wave, and fresh candidates will make a crucial difference in 2026, but don’t bet the farm on it.

This piece has been updated.

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