

He’s a business guy doing business in China; he always posts his sources that he’s highlighting. Almost all of his sources are either mainstream western publications or publications for traders and business insiders. You can interrogate his sources and see if he is misinterpreting the findings. I don’t even know that this guy is a leftist; he’s just very pro-business and believes China is making strong and measurable business moves to maintain their markets, and he showcases how western business interests are being outmanuvered by China’s business interests.
His reports are rooted in international trade activity, and he draws what I think are logical conclusions based on that international trade activity. If antimony is required for the construction of weapons and China is being hyper-restrictive on its exports of antimony, then it stands to reason that the restocking of those weapons is going to take a hit as they run down their own supply backstock. Antimony isn’t the only critical mineral that China is restricting; magnets are suffering a similar situation.
From the WSJ article in the first link:
Western companies say they are receiving barely enough magnets for their factories and have little visibility of future supplies. Firms are waiting weeks as Chinese authorities scrutinize their applications—only to be rejected in some cases. And applications for raw rare earths, which are used to make magnets, are rarely granted.
As a result, Western companies are concerned that the shortages could soon affect manufacturing. Companies are so desperate for magnets that they are opting for expensive airfreight whenever licenses are granted to prevent costly production shutdowns. Some manufacturers are experimenting with workarounds that would allow them to make their products without the most powerful magnets.
The drone company he mentened, ePropelled, just announced a partnership with USA Rare Earth; except on the company’s own website, it’s very clear that this is a new venture, not an established venture looking for more contracts. Time will tell on the quality and the actual output this entity is capable of, but undoubtably the US and the West broadly are going to need more facilities like this, and they simply don’t have them yet.
Even if NATO is sending less than what Ukraine can produce domestically, both will be subject to these restrictions from China, and it at a minimum will slow their production. If the resupply rate drops below the utilization rate, that’s an issue; that’s just basic math. That’s simply an objective perspective on the landscape. I don’t think it’s propaganda to point out that Ukraine and NATO are using weapons and that the manufacturing industry is already sweating over supply chains to keep up with production, which will be bad for NATO and Ukraine. If they were in a conflict anywhere else, the math equation would still be the same; Ukraine is likely still the largest active conflict NATO and the West are supporting at this time, that is, unless Iran or Syria become more active again, in which case the problem only becomes worse.

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