Hi, all, and happy Monday.
Of course it’s not terribly happy, as Senate Democrats seem poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and pass a terrible, temporary compromise bill. There is a very, very, VERY slim chance we can stop it—more about that below—but it’s not looking great.
Let me tell you what I know:
The vote last night was not a final vote. It was, rather, a vote for cloture on the motion to proceed to the original Republican CR funding the government through Nov 21. (This is the 15th iteration of the same vote they’ve been holding for the past month). It had a 60 vote threshold. The Democratic Senators who voted yes are as follows:
Dick Durbin (IL)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Jacky Rosen (NV)
Maggie Hassan (NH)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
John Fetterman (PA)
Tim Kaine (VA)
Angus King (Independent - ME).
What I heard this morning is that most of the above Senators—with the exception of Rosen and Kaine—have been pushing for this deal for weeks. Schumer supposedly opposed it but lacked the power (or skill) to keep his caucus in order. This is being described as these Senators “going rogue,” but it’s still, to me, a clear indication of Schumer’s unfitness to lead. This would never, ever have happened under a more capable leader. He needs to step down, but more on that later.
Senators Kaine and Rosen were, apparently, “no” votes that flipped to “yes” last minute. Kaine believed that the guaranteed reversal of RIFs in the deal would make his constituents happy—he deeply miscalculated. I don’t know what Rosen’s calculation was, but she regularly takes bad votes, so we shouldn’t be surprised. These two are now, however, considered the two Senators who maybe could flip their votes back to no, so they are who were are targeting the hardest. Every Senator above, however, should be deluged with calls. If we can peel off ONE of them we can stop the deal. (Rand Paul is a no.) Even if we can’t, they should still know that they have enraged their constituents and betrayed the American people.
The process going forward is as follows:
Next: final passage of motion to proceed to the original Republican CR. (50 vote threshold.)
Then: Amendment vote on replacing old Republican CR with the new one, which goes to January 30. (Not sure of threshold here. Likely 50.)
Then: Cloture on the deal. (60 vote threshold.)
Last: Final passage of deal. (50 vote threshold.)
The exact timeline of the above is unclear right now. If the Senate goes “by the book”, that is to say, literally by the rules, this will all take several days. However, it’s possible this timeline can compress, by a lot, depending on whether or not anyone objects to compressing it. There would be at least some amount of debate throughout this.
Finally, once it passes the Senate the House still needs to clear it.
HOUSE PROCESS
Once the Senate passes the amended bill, it will return to the House for another vote.
House leadership plans to give members 36 hours’ notice before that vote takes place.
When Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) is sworn in—and she has to be—the House will have 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
This gives Speaker Johnson a margin of only two Republican votes to pass the bill on his own.
Two Republicans, Thomas Massie and Victoria Spartz, voted against the previous funding bill.
All told, we’re looking at several days minimum before anything is signed into law.
OK. That’s what I know right now.
It’s a deeply frustrating and even enraging moment, but let’s channel those feelings into action. Also, as angry as I am at the “awful eight,” (and at Schumer), it is important to remember that the majority of the Senate Democratic caucus is furious about this deal. So as much as we feel like blaming Democrats writ large, it’s important that we focus blame where it belongs. That is those eight Senators, Minority Leader Schumer, AND, most importantly, Republicans, who hold all three branches of government. They were willing to let 42 million people starve to get their way. They demolished the East Wing and threw a Gatsby party while fighting in court to avoid using the SNAP emergency fund. They adamantly refuse to fund healthcare but were happy to fund billionaires.
We must never forget any of that.
OK, all. Cutting it off here because I want to get us to our calls. Never a dull moment, eh?
This is tough, but we’re tougher. Let’s get to work.
P.S. We Build Progress just published a short explainer of what is and is not in the bill and how the process will likely play out. (They do not think a Dem reversal is happening.) It’s actually really helpful. Find it here.
Call Your Senators (find yours here) 📲
Hi, I’m a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is ______.
I am absolutely furious that the Senate is about to pass a deal that doesn’t extend the ACA premium tax credits. How dare they? We literally cannot afford our health insurance without these subsidies. The fact that Congress has thrown so many of us under the bus is inexcusable.
[If Dem (and not one of the awful eight) add:]
I am furious beyond belief that Democrats have caved to Republicans while extracting no meaningful concessions. I understand this isn’t the Senator’s fault—Please thank them for voting no. But I do fault them for allowing Minority Leader Schumer to stay in his leadership position for this long. Please ask them to call on him to step down now. He has proven himself unfit to lead. I will have no confidence in Senate Democrats as a whole until he steps aside. Thanks.
[If one of the 8]
I am absolutely livid at the Senator for caving. They need to vote no on the second cloture vote and kill this deal. Do they not understand that Republicans are liars who will never keep a promise? We turned out in droves for Democrats last week and this is how they thank us? Shame on them.
[If GOP]
And let me be clear, while I am furious at the members of my own party who caved in this deal, I will never, ever forget that it is Republicans who were willing to let 42 million people starve in order to win this fight—all so they could take away our healthcare. The Senator has betrayed his/her constituents. Shame on him/her.
Call Your House Rep (find yours here) 📲
Hi, I’m a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is _______.
I am absolutely furious that the Senate is about to pass a deal that doesn’t extend the ACA premium tax credits. Your voters literally cannot afford their health insurance without these subsidies. The fact that Congress has thrown so many of us under the bus is inexcusable. When this bill comes back to the House I expect the Congressmember to vote no. This is not about party. It is about saving your constituents from medical bankruptcy. Thanks.
Extra Credit ✅
My friend and fellow Substack authot has a petition calling for Chuck Schumer to step down. It’s really, really time. Please sign it here and share widely.
Grab Your Wallets!
Are you furious at those eight Democrats for being cowards and caving? Me too. We showed them who had the power when we swept the elections last week and they betrayed us. We need to take matters into our own hand to stop the Trump regime and all those supporting it. And guess what? A movement is afoot!
On Black Friday we start boycotting Home Depot (for cooperating with ICE), Target (for betraying their DEI commitments), and Amazon (for funding the regime.) This effort is called “We Ain’t Buying It” and it’s a cross-coalitional action. Please, let’s do this! Check out the website here!
Resistbot Letter (new to Resistbot? Go here! And then here.) 💻
[To: all 3 reps] [H/T ] [Text SIGN PFPXLI to 50409, or to @Resistbot on Apple Messages, Messenger, Instagram, or Telegram]
(Note that for the most effective RESISTBOT it’s best to personalize this text. More about how to do this here. But if you’re short on time just send it as is using the above code.)
Once again, Republicans are demanding that the American people trust their word — and once again, that word is worthless.After forty days of chaos and hardship, the so-called “deal” to reopen the government offers nothing but empty promises. The GOP has agreed only to allow a future vote on extending Affordable Care Act premium subsidies — with no guarantee of passage, no commitment from the House, and no enforcement mechanism.That’s not a concession; it’s a con.
[Rest of the letter is here. It’s great!]
OK, you did it again! You’re helping to save democracy! You’re amazing.
Talk soon.
Jess
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