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Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The furor over Donald Trump’s handling of the Epstein files, and the possibility of future revelations about the 47th president’s relationship with the late sex offender, is showing no signs of abating more than a week after Trump tried to dismiss it all as a “Democrat hoax.” And sporadic polling during the sudden flare-up of this issue indicates the public isn’t happy about it at all — and that includes Republicans.

But the impact on Trump’s popularity is unclear. His net job-approval ratings have been more or less sliding since a June 7 peak of minus-3.5 percent (according to the averages at Silver Bulletin) and currently stand at minus-9.5 percent. Some of this decline occurred after the explosion of the Epstein files in the news on July 7, when the DOJ and FBI announced there was nothing to investigate. But it’s the salience of the Epstein files issue that is in question, as Silver Bulletin noted:

Why the steep decline in Trump’s approval rating over the past two weeks? One potential explanation is the Epstein files. Americans (even Republicans) aren’t happy with how Trump is handling them. But the issue isn’t necessarily salient. Another more boring possibility is that Americans simply don’t like Trump’s policies.

Americans have had strong and divided opinions about Donald Trump for a decade, and he has been unpopular more than he’s been popular over the years. Is this controversy, perhaps because it is of particular interest to elements of Trump’s MAGA base, fundamentally changing perceptions of him? That hypothesis bears a heavy burden of truth given the many times Trump has said or done something thought to have doomed his political career, dating back at least to his mockery of John McCain’s POW heroism during a July 2015 campaign appearance.

The only way we have to measure the actual impact of the Epstein files brouhaha is its effect on Trump’s presidential job-approval ratings, and it’s not easy to disentangle unhappiness over this issue with others. But if it really is damaging Trump’s relationship with his base, that should show up in his job approval among Republicans. Unfortunately, some of the most recent polls (e.g., from The Wall Street Journal, Emerson College, and Trafalgar/Insider Advantage) weren’t accompanied by partisan cross-tabs. But this last survey from two notably pro-Republican pollsters claimed that “Trump’s approval ratings are once again climbing” and suggested Republicans were much more focused on Tulsi Gabbard’s accusations of treason against Barack Obama than on the Epstein files issue.

Similarly, a July 23 survey from Daily Mail/JL Partners showed plurality disapproval (27 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable) of Trump’s handling of the Epstein files, but with no impact on his overall job-approval ratings:

‘The news saga might have seemed terrible for Trump in the last few days, but it isn’t having an impact on his approval rating,’ James Johnson, JL Partners co-founder told the Daily Mail.

‘In fact, we think it’s going up, from 48% to 49%, making this his best approval rating since May. His ratings with the base is holding up too, unchanged on 91 percent with Republicans,’ Johnson continued.

A slightly older (July 21) Fox News survey showed “60% of Republicans and 56% of MAGA supporters” thought the Trump administration had not been totally “open and transparent” about the Epstein case. Yet Trump’s job-approval rating stood at 88 percent among Republicans and 96 percent among MAGA supporters. In terms of the salience of the Epstein files, the Fox findings are unambiguous:

For those who disapprove [of Trump’s job performance], the top reasons are “the economy/tariffs” (14%), “doesn’t have the temperament” (13%), “not following the Constitution” (10%), “separating families”/immigration (8%), “he favors the rich” (7%), generally disliking what he’s doing (7%), and “too many government cuts” (6%). Only 1% mention “Jeffrey Epstein case,” and all of that comes from Democrats and independents.

Reinforcing these findings is another July 21 poll with partisan cross-tabs, from YouGov/Economist. It found only 45 percent of Republicans gave Trump a positive assessment on his handling of the Epstein investigation (as compared to 25 percent disapproving), but his overall job-approval rating among Republicans was still 87 percent.

It’s possible that with the intensification of media coverage of the Epstein saga, the numbers will change. And, obviously, if it turns out there is clear evidence (not just innuendos) that Trump personally participated in Epstein’s predatory conduct, everything could change, but that’s been true all along. At this point, there’s just not any empirical basis for concluding that the Epstein issue is damaging Trump’s standing anywhere, and even less that it’s causing some sort of breakup with his MAGA base.

Trump’s Job Approval Is Down, But Not Due to the Epstein Files

Trump’s Job Approval Is Down, But Not Due to the Epstein Files