It has been dubbed the “Amazon COP”, the “COP of Implementation” and “the COP of Truth” – but the UN climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém may end up being remembered as the biofuels COP.

COP30 president Brazil – a leading producer of sugar-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel – won backing from 23 governments for a pledge to quadruple production of so-called sustainable fuels by 2030, and has set out to promote biofuels at the talks.

The production of biofuels is likely to ramp up in the coming years, with the air travel and shipping industries – as well as road transport – seeing it as a cheaper way to decarbonise than technologies based on green hydrogen.

But critics say the need for more land to grow the feedstocks used to make biofuels can increase deforestation pressure, and that land suitable for growing crops should be used for food, not fuel.

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Cian Delaney, a campaigner on energy issues at the Brussels-based Transport & Environment group, said it is “difficult to imagine a scenario where this [pledge] doesn’t require more land clearance”.

“Without any commitment from countries to meet the target without clearing more land, this will be devastating for the climate, ecosystems and food security,” he said.

Brazil has tried to allay these concerns, saying that for fuels to be considered sustainable they must have a low greenhouse gas intensity and comply with a set of criteria such as nature conservation, sustainable water management and compliance with social safeguards.

Biofuels take centre-stage at COP30

Biofuels have been prominent at the COP30 venue itself. Electricity generators at the venue and buses shuttling delegates around are running on diesel mixed with 10% biofuels, and corporate advocates of plant-based fuels such as Toyota are promoting their product.

The Japanese carmaker was present on at least 10 panels and provided a fleet of 70 hybrid vehicles powered by ethanol. Information tablets in each of the cars made the case for biofuels.

Toyota’s communications director, Roberto Braun, told one panel that electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuels are both part of the solution to tackling transport’s fossil fuel emissions, especially in developing countries without adequate charging infrastructure or widespread power access.

They also create jobs, Braun told the panel run by Brazil’s main business association (CNI).

But Greenpeace, which has previously challenged Toyota over its support for biofuels, accused the company of undermining global efforts to fight climate change by ignoring “mounting scientific consensus that biofuels are a false climate solution”.

Sugarcane field in development stage is seen at a farm in Jacarezinho, Brazil 2019. (Photo: REUTERS/Marcelo Texeira)

Sugarcane field in development stage is seen at a farm in Jacarezinho, Brazil 2019. (Photo: REUTERS/Marcelo Texeira)

Food vs fuel vs forests

Those opposed to biofuels say using renewable electricity and batteries – or green hydrogen made from renewable power – is the right way to cut emissions from transport.

But those options appear a remote possibility in parts of the Global South where charging points are rare and power infrastructure limited, as is the case in Brazil’s vast interior. Other developing countries like COP32 host Ethiopia have faced similar challenges to EV roll-out in rural areas.

In contrast, across Brazil, biofuels are already well-established.

According to a report prepared for the COP30 presidency by the International Energy Agency (IEA), no major country gets more of its fuel from biofuels – particularly ethanol – than Brazil.

Drivers across the country can choose between refuelling with pure ethanol or with a – usually slightly more expensive – mix of 30% ethanol and 70% gasoline. In rural areas, where pick-up trucks like Toyota’s are a ubiquitous sight, billboards advertise ethanol’s environmental benefits.

“Rich country-centric” EV focus

In the run-up to COP30, Greenpeace exchanged a series of open letters with Toyota President Koji Sato, who said the company’s strategy reflected the “differing needs and energy circumstances of customers across nations and regions”.

Taking different realities into account makes sense, said Francis X. Johnson, a scientist who was lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s special report on climate change and land.

The prototype of the Toyota Innova Hycross, which Toyota said is the world’s first flex-fuel ethanol-powered car, launched in India on 29 August 2023. (Photo by Pradeep Gaur / SOPA Images/Sipa USA)

He told Climate Home News the focus on EVs has created a “rich country-centric” perspective.

“In the Global South, where significant populations still live in rural areas and where infrastructure and electricity are often unreliable or absent,” Johnson said, more diversified strategies involving biofuels are “highly valuable”.

Their merits vary wildly depending on the biofuel though, he warned. While sugarcane-based ethanol in Brazil has been “providing emissions and development benefits for years”, soy or corn-based biofuels in Europe or North America are generally quite polluting.

As Climate Home News revealed in June, virgin palm oil from Malaysia has been passed off as used cooking oil and sold to aviation fuel suppliers in Europe, hiking deforestation and food prices in the rainforest nation.

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Felipe Barcellos from the Energy and Environment Institute (IEMA), a Brazilian think-tank, said there were “a lot of bad examples, like Indonesia and Malaysia”, adding that “this oil is very problematic”.

But, he said that while EVs are the best choice, biofuels have a place as long as proper safeguards are in place to prevent deforestation to make way for feedstock crops.

Brazil has 100 million hectares of degraded pasture, an area the size of Egypt, some of which could be brought back into productivity for crops, Barcellos said. Some could also be reforested, though reforesting all of it is not feasible, due to the high cost and need for financing.

EVs must be the priority, campaigners say

But for Greenpeace, biofuels can only be a limited, stop-gap measure on the road to an EV-only future.

Greenpeace campaigner Mariko Shiohata, who has led the campaign group’s criticism of Toyota’s progress to electrify its range, acknowledged that biofuels “will be needed on a marginal scale”. Brazil-based Greenpeace campaigner Camila Jardim said biofuels “may play a limited and temporary role in Brazil”.

But “large-scale bioenergy crops still drive land pressure, monocultures, pesticide use and social conflict, even when labelled as ‘using degraded land’,” Jardim said. In practice, expansion often displaces cattle and can indirectly fuel deforestation, she added.

In the meantime, switching to electric and reducing the number of cars on the road worldwide should be the priority, Shiohata said, suggesting Toyota could do more – for example, by making small, cheap EVs with renewable-energy charging stations. Governments should also encourage electricity access with off-grid solar panels.

“There’s no time for detours on electrification,” she said.

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