Photo: Nathan Howard/AFP/Getty Images

One year into Donald Trump’s second term, it’s difficult to grasp the coherence of MAGA. At its core, MAGA is about tariffs and xenophobia. It’s also about purported populism that favors tax cuts for the rich, brutal cuts to the social safety net, and attacks on free speech. On the foreign-policy front, the isolationism and deal-making that were supposed to characterize Trump’s philosophy — he has vowed, at various points over the past decade, to not entangle America in new wars — has given way, over a number of months, to something darker: the longing for regime change. In Venezuela, Trump seems to have found his Iraq, a nation ruled by a dictator that poses no serious threat to the United States but must be, for entirely dubious reasons, upended.

The spotlight on Pete Hegseth, the woefully inexperienced Defense secretary whose second strike on survivors of an alleged drug boat off the coast of Venezuela is drawing deserved scrutiny, is understandable, though it obscures where the real power lies. (It remains unclear whether Hegseth, who was already at the center of Signalgate, will survive all four years of Trump’s term.) It’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio who seems to be living his dream of steering the United States toward war with Venezuela and an overthrow of its autocratic president, Nicolás Maduro. Rubio has dodged scandal by behaving as a conventional neoconservative, implementing a vision that would appear entirely at odds with MAGA isolationism but is, for now, fully endorsed by Trump. Last month, the Navy’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford, moved into the Caribbean, allowing the U.S. to strike boats suspected of carrying drugs or targets on land in Venezuela. There are as many as 10,000 troops already in the region, roughly half ashore in Puerto Rico and half aboard eight warships. Involving more than 15,000 military personnel overall, the American buildup is the largest in the region in decades and looks more and more like an invasion.

Whatever it is, Rubio is delighting in it. And so is his base: Florida Republicans, especially those in the Miami area, who are eager for the U.S. to topple Maduro. Venezuelan emigres in Florida revile his regime in the way Cuban emigres reviled Fidel Castro and hoped desperately the U.S. would overthrow him. For Rubio, all of this is very political and personal — and he’s got Trump onboard because he’s convinced, contrary to actual evidence, that crushing Venezuela is about winning the “War on Drugs.” Fentanyl is not manufactured in the country, and there’s no national-security threat posed to the U.S. One can’t even pretend there are weapons of mass destruction hidden in Caracas. Rubio doesn’t care, though, and Trump seems excited for a distraction. His approval ratings are dismal, and the Epstein files drama won’t quite abate. Why not a war? Or at least something that looks like one?

This was always one of the major dangers of Trump — that he’d end up empowering the worst and most destructive elements of the Republican Party. Rubio is a true believer. And he’d be happy to convince Trump that regime change in Venezuela is worthwhile. We’ll see if the president bites. Deposing Maduro and installing a new president could be bloodier than Iraq. If American soldiers ever deployed to Venezuela, they would face a range of sophisticated armed actors: the Colombian-Venezuelan National Liberation Army and FARC are estimated to number in the thousands across both countries. Various transnational gangs, including Tren de Aragua, and local paramilitaries are heavily armed. Venezuela’s armed forces aren’t disappearing, either.

Does Trump want this? Is he ready to send American troops to their deaths for a war as idiotic as this one? Rubio is. And if Rubio’s got Trump’s ear, there’s going to be little but bloodshed in the immediate future. All Americans can really hope for is that Trump is bluffing. Let the ships circle and eventually leave. If they don’t — and if the invasion is real — there will be carnage.

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