Progress has been made in negotiations to end Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, but there is no certainty a peaceful settlement will be reached, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told British outlet UnHerd in an interview published on Dec. 22.
“I think that we’ve made progress, but sitting here today, I wouldn’t say with confidence that we’re going to get to a peaceful resolution,” Vance said.
“I think there’s a good chance we will. I think there’s a good chance we won’t.”
The remarks come as Washington intensifies diplomatic efforts to broker an end to the war, now entering its fourth year, under U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to accelerate negotiations.
Over the weekend, U.S. officials held talks with both Ukrainian and Russian delegations as part of the latest round of shuttle diplomacy. According to Vance, the talks involve three difficult tracks — Ukraine, Russia, and Europe — each with its own priorities and red lines.
Vance described what he called a key shift in the negotiations, saying that the major points of disagreement are now being discussed openly rather than obscured.
“The breakthrough that I do feel that we’ve made is that all of the issues are actually out in the open,” he said, adding that earlier stages involved “a little bit of a game of obfuscation.”
Territorial concessions remain the central obstacle, Vance said, pointing specifically to Russia’s demands in eastern Ukraine.
“I think the Russians really want territorial control of the Donetsk,” he said.
“The Ukrainians understandably see that as a major security problem, even as they privately acknowledge that eventually, they’ll probably lose Donetsk — but eventually could be 12 months from now, it could be longer than that.”
Vance added that he does not oppose limited information from the talks reaching the public and said he believes all sides are engaging “in good faith.”
Still, he cautioned against assuming a deal is inevitable.
“We’re gonna try to get this thing solved. We’re going to keep on trying to negotiate,” he said.
Ukrainian delegates met U.S. representatives for another round of talks on Dec. 21. The meeting followed Ukrainian-U.S. discussions on Dec. 19 and Russian-U.S. talks on Dec. 20 in Miami.
The negotiations focus on a revised 20-point framework to end the war, alongside parallel discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine and postwar economic development.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 20 that territorial issues remain Kyiv’s top priority.
Moscow continues to demand sweeping concessions, including Ukraine’s withdrawal from the entire Donbas region — both Russian-occupied areas and territory still under Ukrainian control — conditions Kyiv has repeatedly rejected.
Read also: Ukrainian, US delegates hold ‘constructive’ talks as Russian team meets Americans in Miami
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