Image by Dominik Vanyi.

The inherent fallacy of the political scientist is that she cannot test her theory. There are, of course, no controlled experiments (unless you’re running a country like an economic laboratory for neoliberal policies. See Chile 1973). Thus, making hypotheses or predicting the outcome in politics is a fool’s game. However, you can count on a constant reality in the game of geopolitics—self-preservation through pragmatic politics that secure a State’s national interests, or what is known as realpolitik. While made infamous by the notorious “statesman” (read war criminal) Henry Kissinger, pragmatism has helped preserve more States than ideology has throughout history. States, as systems of control and centralized power operated by an elite class, seek self-preservation above all. While ideology can help to win over a populace for more effective governance, geopolitics requires a pragmatic approach in a landscape dictated by force. In other words, politics has always been a game of power and nothing else.

While it is hard to determine the true geopolitical strategy behind Operation Absolute Resolve, which brazenly abducted the sovereign president of Venezuela, we can take a look at patterns and trends over the last few years, as well as the current geopolitical landscape, to deduce the pragmatic politics behind the assault. Setting aside the rhetoric from the White House as political posturing and saber-rattling, we can analyze what Operation Absolute Resolve accomplishes for the U.S. empire in the current moment. Beyond the immediate short-term goals of resource extraction and control, a closer look at what this operation does for the US on multiple fronts helps one better understand its move in the game of geopolitics. While the US is undoubtedly the world’s most influential rogue state, as it unapologetically prioritizes its interests over International Law in shaping the world order, it does not act irrationally. Instead, the US empire acts through strategic, well-calculated measures to preserve corporate and military interests. Whenever the US engages in open violations of International Law, such as the strikes in Libya, invasion of Iraq, bombing of EL Salvador, and so many others, we can assume it does so weighing the consequences of international blowback with the geopolitical and economic benefits it would gain.

The following interventions outline some of the main areas in which the US empire has benefited following Operation Absolute Resolve. It situates this operation within the current geopolitical landscape and asks: What are its long-term implications and the messages it conveys? What are the short-term and long-term impacts of this operation?

A clear message to China: The Western Hemisphere Belongs to the US

Just hours before his abduction, President Maduro had concluded his first scheduled meeting with a Chinese delegation. The manner in which the operation was conducted was an affront to diplomatic and consular immunity, as it disregarded the presence of Chinese diplomats. It sends a message to the broader Chinese government that the US is above international Law and the established diplomatic channels respected by other countries.

The meeting between Maduro and the diplomats sought to strengthen collaboration between Venezuela and China, which has invested nearly $70 billion over the past 20 years. China, Venezuela’s largest oil importer, has been strengthening its ties across the region over the years through its Belt and Road initiative, becoming Latin America’s largest trade partner. In 2024, trade in the region reached $518 billion, with more than 20 countries having signed on to the Belt and Road Initiative. Only a few months before the operation, China and Peru inaugurated the Chancay seaport just north of Lima. The nearly $4Billion project is a deep seaport that looks to cut travel time between regions and serve as the gateway to the mineral wealth across the hemisphere.

One of the surprising elements of China’s growth in the 21st century is that it has done so without military interventions or resource wars. Rather, China has relied on investments and economic diplomacy to secure essential trade routes, partners, and significant reserves of its growing economy. At the same time, the US has continued to put pressure on its regional security, strengthening military ties with Japan and Korea, while reaffirming it commitment to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty. That this operation happened while China remains unable to exert its influence over the South China Sea and establish a decisive foreign policy with Taiwan 80 miles off its coast speaks volumes to the contrast between the regional powers.

Operation Absolute Resolve reasserts US dominance over the hemisphere. “Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again, won’t happen,” said Trump shortly after the operation. This aligns with the national security blueprint, known as the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, issued by the White House in early December, which described the Western Hemisphere as a “Homeland Security Zone” given its strategic and economic significance to the well-being of the US.

Reaffirms the Military Power of the US

Operation Absolute Resolve’s effective, surgical brevity reflects the only sector of the American empire that remains unrivaled: its military. With China set to overtake the US by 2030 as the largest economy in the world, and US’s declining influence in the tech world as it falls behind the development of advanced supercomputers and large learning machine, this operation is a reminder to the world that the US not only stands alone with regard to military strength, but that it can be used to overcome its shortcomings.

As the US army’s invasion of Panama in 1989 served to get the “Vietnam syndrome” out of the general public in the US through a swift military victory, the brazen and highly successful abduction of a sovereign president in such a manner gets the US out of the Afghan and Libyan syndrome, while winning over the isolationist “America first” MAGA base. The praise for the operation from many across the MAGA base indicates that the popular isolationist ‘America First’ position was less rooted in concerns for domestic issues and more about the efficacy and ability to project strength onto the global community. It demonstrates a level of warfare that makes other regional powers seem weak in comparison, projecting its domestic chauvinism onto the global stage. With Russia now entering its 5th year of war against Ukraine, and China’s inability to exert full control of the South China Sea, the US reminds its rivals that it remains well ahead in regional, if not global, influence.

The US still maintains the largest number of aircraft carriers at sea, remains the world’s largest weapons manufacturer, and operates nearly 1000 military bases worldwide, most recently reactivating the Naval Station Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico, which returned to service after 20 years. Together with the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in June of 2025, the Trump regime reminds the world that it is the US doctrine and not International Law that dictates the world order.

Not all about oil

Venezuela’s oil production has fallen to about 1/3 of what it was at the beginning of Chavez’s presidency. The same goes for many of its other commodities, namely natural gas, with sanctions, mismanagement and the fracturing of PDVSA leading to weakening industries. Much has been made of Venezuela’s holding the world’s largest oil reserves, an amount larger than those of the US and Saudi Arabia combined. However, these reserves are untapped, located in a region known as the Orinoco Belt in the southeastern part of the country with very little infrastructure. Accessing these ultra-crude oil reserves would require sophisticated mapping technology and drilling equipment that would take years to deploy. Thus, discussions of oil center on its potential to meet the country’s long-term needs rather than to satisfy the empire’s immediate energy requirements.

The inaccessibility of Venezuela’s resources is, of course, a consequence of the technological gap between the North and South countries, with the former still maintaining a disproportionate grip on patents and technologies for mineral extraction. Combined with sanctions and blockades, the extraction of mineral and oil reserves in the global south is always going to depend on its relationship with the North.

Finally, we can assume that there have been coordinated efforts behind the scenes by some, if not all, of Venezuela’s allies and the US, who themselves engage in their own form of realpolitik while remaining true to any “anti-imperialist” ideology. Putin has been notably quiet on Operation Absolute Revolve, as of this writing, having not called for the release of Maduro. A longtime ally of Maduro, Putin had for years reiterated his support for Chavez’s heir, supplying the country with defensive anti-aircraft weapons, the same that failed to deter the US invasion. We can only deduce from this that some concessions may have been given to Russia as negotiations with the US and Ukraine enter their next phase. The same can be assumed about China, although, given that the US and China are not engaged in public negotiations over territorial disputes, we can see why China’s response has been more direct. For people worldwide, including the genuine anti-imperialist movement, the manner in which the operation was conducted indicates the empire’s reluctance to engage in direct confrontation with popular fronts. The time spent on clandestine training, covert operations, and infiltration indicates the empire’s apprehension about symmetric and even classic asymmetric warfare. Only time will reveal more of the strategic benefits Operation Absolute Resolve may have had, or perhaps make it another page in colonial hubris.

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