There were major developments on Tuesday in the ICE occupation of Minnesota and the (non)investigation of the public execution of Alex Pretti. Trump’s underlings began blaming one another for the administration’s cruel and inhumane smear campaign immediately following Alex Pretti’s murder. And Democratic senators began positioning themselves for a shutdown fight on Friday.
Each of the above is an important story because they help us understand how and where we must press our advantage and how we can stiffen the spines of Senate Democrats for the fight to come. But it is helpful to step back to gain perspective on how far we have come in the last several months.
The cumulative effect of the grassroots pro-democracy movement and the horrendous consequences of Trump’s cruel and destructive policies has decimated his support in the razor-thin winning coalition that awarded him his second term. In short, we have the advantage. We have seized control of the media narrative. We have secured the political momentum. And we have touched the hearts and minds of the American people.
True, we must resist the urge to tell ourselves “just so” stories that create a false sense of security during a dangerous time. But when there is good news, we should freely share it to sustain ourselves during a brutal, exhausting battle in the defense of democracy. Even in the midst of rage and sorrow over the murders of Alex Pretti and Renee Good, there is good news to be shared.
Let’s start with the fact that Trump campaigned on a series of lies that targeted the discontent among many constituencies, including Latinos and young white men. While no single group elected Trump, Democrats lost support among both of those indispensable constituencies in 2024. Regaining their trust and support in 2026 and beyond will help Democrats take back Congress and the presidency. If we can do that, we can begin the long, hard road to rehabilitating democracy and restoring the rule of law.
The central thesis of Trump’s immigration promise was that he would deport “the worst of the worst.” Instead, he has focused his mass deportation efforts on law-abiding, productive, tax-paying immigrants seeking to build a better life for themselves and their families. In short, Trump has targeted immigrants pursuing the American dream, the same dream pursued by our immigrant ancestors.
Moreover, as Trump has been consumed with mass deportations and foreign wars, his destructive tariffs have damaged the economy and fueled inflation.
In a rational world where the rules of political gravity apply, Trump should be losing support among the Latino community that he betrayed and the young white men he abandoned, who are struggling to get ahead in an economy with disappearing jobs, poverty-level minimum wages, and tariff-driven inflation outpacing meager wage growth.
So, here’s the good news: Two stories published on Tuesday confirm that the rules of political gravity still apply.
A survey published by The Economist and YouGov made clear the reason for the panic at the White House over the last two weeks. While Trump’s unfavorable ratings on specific issues have received much attention, his loss of support among independents would be fatal to the Republican prospects in 2026 and 2028 (if current trends continue). See YouGov, Donald Trump’s support from Independents hits a new low.
While the media reports most stories through the lens of a binary, two-party system dominated by Democrats and Republicans, the truth is that the largest single voter affiliation in the United States is “independent.” Indeed, “June 2024, 51% of U.S. adults said they were independents—more than the two major parties combined.”
Moreover, young men identify as independents at a higher rate than they do for either Democrats or Republicans. If Trump were to lose support among independents, that would spell disaster for the president and the Republican Party.
With those predicates in mind—51% of voters identify as independents and young men are more likely to identify as independents—take a look at this chart from the YouGov / Economist poll:
Trump’s second term is depicted by the green line in the chart above, which shows a net negative of 40 points (-40). That disapproval rating far surpasses the negative rating during Trump’s first impeachment, which ranged between -28 and -22 (per the above chart).
While some Republicans are peeling away from Trump (or losing the enthusiasm to show up at the polls), having a -40 point net favorability rating among the cohort that represents 51% of the voting population is not a politically survivable scenario for Republicans.
But it gets worse for Trump and Republicans. Against all odds, the Republican made inroads in the Latino community in 2024. Many pundits declared that a single election shift would be a permanent realignment in American politics. That is not true. Neither party should assume they have an unearned claim to the Latino vote in America—as Trump and Republicans are finding out. See New York Times, ‘[Latinas for Trump’ Co-Founder Warns Immigration Will Cost G.O.P. the Midterms](http://‘latinas/ for Trump’ Co-Founder Warns Immigration Will Cost G.O.P. the Midterms).
The Times interview with Florida state senator Ileana Garcia is remarkable because it documents her slowly dawning realization that she and her son are at risk of being snatched from the street by ICE.
Per the Times interview,
A TSA officer at the Tallahassee airport overheard [Senator Garcia] speaking Spanish and asked whether Ms. Garcia, who was born in Miami, was an American citizen. She worried for the first time that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents might stop her son, a young adult, because he looks Hispanic.
Senator Garcia predicted that Republicans will lose the midterms because of “Stephen Miller,” whom she blames for the hostile anti-Latino animus among ICE.
Senator Garcia also discussed the historic victory of Democrat Eileen Higgins in the Miami mayoral race in November 2025.
Per the Times,
Ms. Garcia agreed with those who credited Eileen Higgins’ resounding victory in part to voters’ disgust over the immigration crackdown.
“Republicans stayed home — I wonder why?” Ms. Garcia said. “I think they’re embarrassed. I think that they feel that they might have gotten the wool pulled over their eyes. And this was their way of pushing back.”
To be clear, Senator Garcia still supports Trump, but she is afraid that his policies will lead to ICE arresting and detaining her or her son “because they look Hispanic.”
An overwhelming majority—70%—of Cuban American voters in Florida supported Trump in 2024. But there is now widespread dismay at the aggressive deportation efforts directed at the Cuban immigrant community in Florida. See Miami New Times, Miami Debates Cuban Deportations Across Florida After New Report.
Per the Miami New Times article,
[S]ome are still learning the hard way, like the scores of Republican Cubans in Florida who voted for President Donald Trump, only to find themselves on the business end of his deportation machine.
For many Cubans in Florida, the deportations come as a shock to a voting bloc that supported Trump’s return to power — despite his very clearly expressed will to head the largest deportation operation in United States history.
In fairness, the Miami New Times article is based on my least favorite form of journalism: reporting on social media reactions. The point remains, however, that social media users are reporting a sense of betrayal, as echoed by Senator Garcia’s comments to the New York Times.
To state the obvious, the reaction of independents, especially young men, dismayed by the economy, and Latinos, especially those betrayed by the promise that deportation would focus on the worst of the worst, were entirely foreseeable. The fact that those voters are now open to persuasion is a major opportunity for Democrats in 2026 and 2028.
The erosion of two of Trump’s constituencies should stiffen the spines of Democratic Senators as they approach another government shutdown deadline on Friday.
Democrats have the upper hand and must act accordingly. This video at the link below by Senator Adam Schiff expresses the appropriate level of outrage and resolve. See Adam Schiff, Schiff’s Notes (Substack), ICE’s Big Ugly Slush Fund.
In contrast to Senator Schiff’s passion and promise “to not spend one more dime on ICE or Border Patrol until there is a complete overhaul,” the Democratic demands described in the Wall Street Journal seem much more modest. See WSJ, Senators Seek Last-Minute Deal on Immigration Enforcement
Per the WSJ, sources “said conversations are focused on requiring judicial warrants; mandating body cameras and identification; and giving states the right to conduct their own investigations.”
Each of the reforms noted above would be welcome because they would require ICE and Border Patrol to follow the Constitution and adhere to the minimum standard of police practices. But obtaining a promise to follow the Constitution and follow minimum standards is woefully short of what Democrats should obtain in exchange for funding DHS, the parent agency of ICE.
For starters, Democrats should drastically cut the obscene increase in ICE’s budget. Every ICE officer who skipped the security clearances and received the shortened 47-day training should be fired and forced to reapply. Kristi Noem should be fired. The lawyers who drafted a memo saying that ICE could break into homes without a judicial warrant should be fired. Investigations into the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti should be referred to an independent special counsel. The state of Minnesota should be given complete access to all evidence relating to the killings.
Astute observers of Congress are saying, “Hubbell has gone off the deep end. Most of those concessions cannot be included in the funding bill.” That is true. But that does not mean that Democrats cannot demand those additional reforms as a condition of funding DHS. If Republicans won’t agree to those measures—and many more—then defund DHS, permanently. It was created after the 9/11 terror attacks and has outlived its usefulness in a democracy governed by the Constitution and the rule of law.
Trump and Republicans are on the ropes. We must press our advantage to make up as much ground as quickly as possible while we have the advantage. It may not last. Let’s not revert to “regular order” and senatorial deference to “the kind gentleman from Kentucky” who is supporting a murderous, rogue agency.
Innocent American citizens were executed in public. The American people understand that fact. If Democratic Senators cannot act boldly and courageously now, they do not deserve to be Democratic Senators. The time for half-measures and accommodation has passed. We must act with boldness and courage to honor the memories of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
Minnesota and the aftermath of the execution of Alex Pretti.
The White House is engaged in a civil war between Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem, as each blames the other for the hateful lies spewed in reaction to the execution of Alex Pretti. Noem leaked to Axios that she was acting at Stephen Miller’s direction. See Axios, Stephen Miller Behind DHS Messaging Over Pretti Shooting, Sources Tell Axios.
Per Axios, Noem said, “Everything I’ve done, I’ve done at the direction of the president and Stephen.” Miller promoted calls for Kristi Noem’s firing, including those within the Republican Party. See The Hill, Murkowski says Noem should resign over Minneapolis shootings.
A preliminary review of the shooting (including unreleased body cam footage) was provided to a member of Congress, who leaked the analysis to the press. See NPR, Internal review contradicts White House narrative of Pretti’s death.
The preliminary report not only disproves the lie that Pretti was “brandishing a gun,” but it also demolishes the claim that “Pretti approached officers with a 9mm pistol.” Instead, the officers “attempted to move Pretti” and a woman from the roadway, which caused the officer to spray Pretti with pepper spray—an unprovoked attack on a citizen who had every right to stand in a public street.
The report then says that the officers attempted to take Pretti into custody—again, for no reason. Americans are allowed to stand in neighborhood streets, and ICE and Border Patrol have no jurisdiction to remove peaceful American citizens from public places.
In short, the DHS preliminary report refutes every talking point promoted by Noem, Miller, Blanche, and Patel.
Meanwhile, Trump continued to blame Pretti for being in a public place while in possession of a gun—a stance that drew another rebuke from the National Rifle Association. See CNN, Gun-rights groups decried the administration’s rhetoric on Alex Pretti’s gun. Then Trump went even further.
Per CNN,
“With that being said, you can’t have guns,” Trump said. “You can’t walk in with guns. You just can’t.”
A reporter asked Trump how that squared with the Second Amendment. But Trump didn’t back down.
“You can’t walk in with guns, you can’t do that,” he said. “But it’s a very unfortunate incident.”
While I wish Trump’s description of the law were true, it isn’t. Trump’s continued trashing of the Second Amendment Rights has roiled the gun-rights absolutists in his base. See In Wake of Alex Pretti Shooting, Trump Is Betraying His Base on Gun Rights. They’re Not Happy.
Here’s the point: The administration botched the initial communications surrounding the execution of Alex Pretti. A rational and decent president would admit the mistake and make amends. Not Trump. He is incapable of doing so. Indeed, he will continue to make it worse—by a lot.
Which brings us back to the advantage that Democrats have in demanding that ICE and Border Patrol be defunded, defanged, and reformed from the ground up. We owe nothing less than that to Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
Concluding Thoughts
The people of Minnesota continue to show the way forward. They are protesting and organizing in ways that are capturing the hearts and minds of the American people. And they are doing so in a hostile environment, staring down an armed, thuggish, occupying army.
The people of Minnesota will be remembered for their stand against ICE and Border Patrol. In doing so, they are not only protecting their communities, but are also protecting our rights. Most importantly, they are setting an example of courage and determination that should inspire each of us to act with similar bravery and determination in the defense of democracy.
We owe the people of Minnesota a debt of gratitude that can only be repaid through political activism on our part. In whatever way you can, show the people of Minnesota that we have their backs!
Stay strong, and be careful. Talk to you tomorrow!
Pro-democracy protest photos
[Submit photos by “replying” to this newsletter or sending to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Please clearly identify where the photo was taken, e.g. City, State.]
Minneapolis, MN, at the site of the execution of Alex Pretti
Chicago, IL.
Bar Harbor, ME
Hollywood, CA
Minneapolis, MN
Pasadena, CA
Tacoma, WA (a child’s hand-drawn poster)
Akron, Ohio
From Today’s Edition Newsletter via this RSS feed