The news cycle feels like it is pulling us in opposite directions: The American people are making significant progress in resisting Trump through ongoing protests, coordinated community actions, and surprising strength at the ballot box, all while Trump’s favorability ratings are dropping off a cliff. At the same time, Trump is engaging in ever more lawless actions. Yesterday, he seized 2020 ballots and tabulation tapes wholesale from Fulton County, Georgia, under the supervision of the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and a rogue US Attorney from Missouri.
As the people and Trump engage in an exhausting hand-to-hand contest of wills, Senate Democrats are “making deals” to keep the government open so they can kick the can of ICE reform down the road—when Democrats will have less leverage than they do today. “Fear not,” Senate Democrats assure us, “When it really matters, we will be unyielding and steadfast—unlike today, when we were nice guys who gave away 90% of our leverage because we don’t want people to be mad at us.”
The whiplash between victories by the people and temporizing by Democratic leaders is enervating and confusing. Are we winning or losing? Answer: Yes. Both things are true at the same time. We will not win every battle; we don’t need to. We need only win most of them, over time. By that measure, there is no doubt that we are winning.
A friend sent me a note about a conversation he had at lunch today with several of his friends. The conversation illustrates the competing narratives at the heart of the contradictory crosscurrents in the news. He writes:
I said at lunch that I thought we had reached a tipping point in the last few weeks and all of my friends agreed. But it turned out that they thought we were tipping in a positive direction (widespread demonstrations, disastrous Trump polling results, Trump “backing off” in Minneapolis, etc.) while I thought we were tipping in a negative direction (Trump acting increasingly unhinged, both domestically and internationally).
We were all surprised, but then I realized that both views can be true.
Trump and his supporters have shown us just who they are and how far they’ll go to achieve their ends, and I fear that they will get more extreme, especially if Trump starts to feel like a cornered animal — the negative tipping.
On the other hand, we clearly have the momentum on our side, and it’s an opportunity to continue swinging public opinion in our favor, winning the ’26 elections and implanting backbones into our elected representatives.
So, we are at a tipping point, and the question is “Which way will we go?’ Or maybe the right question is, “What do we do when Trump tips in one direction while the American public tips in the other?”
There is no doubt that Trump will engage in more extreme conduct as his favorability erodes further and he begins to lose his death grip on the Republican Party. As he weakens, our ability to resist will increase as we march toward victory in 2026. (Note: Nothing is guaranteed; we will only do so if we do not relent.)
So, as we look at stories that are disturbing (Fulton County, Georgia ballot seizure), disappointing (Senate Democrats giving away leverage), and encouraging (latest PEW Research polling), let’s remember that the throughline of each story is that Trump is on the ropes and flailing wildly because he is cornered.
Trump seizes 2020 ballots from Fulton County, Georgia in investigation of alleged fraud
The story of Trump seizing the 2020 ballots from the Fulton County registrar’s office is disturbing. It is the stuff of full-blown dictatorships and strikes at the beating heart of our democracy—free and fair elections.
The basic facts of the seizure are described here: ABC News, Fulton County official slams 2020 ballot seizure as FBI director says there was ‘probable cause’.
The seizure is a continuation of the kooky claims of election fraud in Fulton County, GA. Those claims include alleged “vote flipping” by means of an Italian satellite and / or a Chinese thermostat. Those claims have been repeatedly debunked, and multiple recounts and audits have proven the integrity of the votes in Fulton County. See ABC News, Trump posts discredited conspiracy theories following seizure of 2020 ballots in Georgia.
Per the above ABC News article,
Late Wednesday night, the president reposted to his social media platform a claim that Italian military satellites had been used to hack into U.S. voting machines to flip votes from Trump to Joe Biden.
“China reportedly coordinated the whole operation,” the post reads. “The CIA oversaw it, the FBI covered it up, all to install Biden as a puppet.”
Although Trump, the FBI, and Tulsi Gabbard are on a wild goose chase, there are disturbing elements to this story that suggest Trump has simultaneously compromised the DOJ, the FBI, and a federal magistrate judge in order to pursue a baseless investigation.
First, the search warrant was obtained by a US Attorney located in Missouri—suggesting that no US Attorney or grand jury in Georgia would support the investigation.
Second, the notion that “a federal judge” found “probable cause” to seize ALL 2020 voting records in Fulton County seems incredible on its face. Warrants must be based on facts establishing probable cause that the evidence to be seized relates to a specific crime. Warrants are not “fishing licenses” that allow for the wholesale seizure of documents based on general suspicion. See Pro Publica, FBI’s Search of Fulton County, Georgia, Election Center Is Unprecedented, Experts Say.
Indeed, “The Fourth Amendment was adopted in direct response to the British use of general warrants and writs of assistance, which allowed officers to search anywhere and seize anything without particularized suspicion.”
See Owsley, Brian L. (2022) “The Best Offense is a Good Defense: Fourth Amendment Implications of Geofence Warrants,” Hofstra Law Review: Vol. 50: Iss. 4, Article 4.
Third, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Tulsi Gabbard, appeared to oversee the FBI raid. The DNI’s role is to protect the US from foreign threats. The fact that Trump has weaponized the DNI against the American people suggests that the position has been compromised and must be eliminated (along with ICE and DHS).
Fourth, the top agent in the FBI field office in Atlanta abruptly quit or resigned last week, suggesting that he refused to back the seizure of election records from Fulton County. See MSN / Alternet, Georgia elections raid comes week after FBI replaced top agent.
Finally, the records were in a secure facility under a court-ordered seal. The appropriate relief for the federal government was to go the state court judge with jurisdiction over the records, rather than convincing a federal magistrate to authorize the FBI to seize the records in violation of the state court order.
Indeed, a local news report states that a hearing was scheduled in state court on February 9, 2026, to arrange for the transfer of the records to the parties to a lawsuit challenging the 2020 election. See 11Alive.com, FBI to seize all 2020 election ballots, records after raiding Fulton County elections hub: warrants. (“Fulton County Superior Court scheduled a hearing for Feb. 9 to do a transfer of the records to the parties involved.”)
It is difficult to overstate the egregious nature of the federal government’s actions in this case. It is as though the federal government has declared war on the co-sovereignty of states under the Constitution. While federal law is supreme when it conflicts with state law, there was no conflict here. State law could have and should have been observed by petitioning the state court for access to the records.
All of the above is extraordinarily disturbing. But I part company with most commentators at this point. The breathless tone in many outlets and social media platforms suggests that the seizure of the ballots and tabulating tapes in Fulton County means that Trump will repeat the same exercise in the November midterms to prevent state officials from counting votes in jurisdictions where Trump believes he might lose.
The doomsday scenario is true only if we are potted plants who will say, “Gee, I hate it when the president steals ballots while they are being counted,” and then go back to scrolling through TikTok dance memes.
We can fight back against the ham-fisted effort undertaken by Kash Patel and Tulsi Gabbard. We are fortunate that this raid took place nine months before the 2026 midterms. That gives us plenty of time to mount legal challenges to the seizure and to learn what information was contained in the sealed warrant application presented to the magistrate judge.
Two things are true: Trump engineered an illegitimate seizure of massive amounts of information pursuant to an illegal general warrant and we have enough time to challenge that seizure and demonstrate that the warrant was improvidently (corruptly?) issued.
Remember, Trump filed over 60 lawsuits after the 2020 election and lost every one of them, including several relating to Georgia, because he could not present evidence of Italian satellites and Chinese thermostats flipping votes to Biden. The same thing will happen in November 2026.
One other note of confidence: The reason Trump focused on Georgia in 2020 was that the election was close enough for a legal challenge to make a difference. Trump made noises about the elections in November 2025 being rigged, but immediately dropped those claims when it became clear that Democrats won by large, incontestable margins. We must do the same in November 2026—and all indications are that we will!
Democrats make a deal in the Senate.
Democrats made a deal with Senate Republicans to split the DHS funding bill from five other bills and agreed to a two-week continuing resolution to fund DHS. Although there may be a brief shutdown because of the need to recall the House into session, the deal has Trump’s approval. See Politico, Trump-blessed deal to keep government funded gets snagged in Senate.
The net effect of the deal is to keep the government open by passing 11 of the 12 bills necessary to fund the 2026-27 budget. That leaves only the funding for DHS on the table. Democrats hope to use the next two weeks to pressure Republicans to agree to substantial reforms to DHS and ICE. See NPR, How Democrats want to reform DHS — and why some Republicans are open to their demands.
Here is the short version of what happened: Democrats had significant leverage because they could shut down 6 of 12 agencies to force Republicans to reform ICE. By agreeing to pass 5 of those bills, Democrats have given away most of their leverage to force ICE reform. Their only leverage will be the threat to withhold funding from DHS.
It is possible that a continuing DHS shutdown will be enough of a threat to force Republicans to agree to meaningful reforms at ICE. That strategy will work only if the seven Democratic senators who capitulated to Trump last November hold firm this time.
I am skeptical that Democrats have the courage and discipline to hold out indefinitely on a DHS shutdown. I hope I am wrong.
But beyond my skepticism and hope is a more important issue: People are dying in the streets as part of a massive, peaceful, effective resistance to ICE. Senate Democrats could have taken a bold stand in solidarity with Americans who are risking their lives to defend democracy. Instead, Democrats are working with Republicans to keep the trains running on time for a lawless regime.
It would have been better if Senate Democrats had shown fire in the belly and solidarity with people in the streets. Instead, they let a moment of great leverage slip out of their hands because they were caught in the technicalities of passing legislation.
Chuck Schumer appears to have no idea what is happening in the streets across the nation. If he did, he would have explained to the millions of Americans risking their lives why this deal is the best way forward. Not in a press release; not in a leak to Axios or the WSJ; and not in a stiff, by-the-book explanation of the legislative process with tired, partisan jabs at Republicans.
People are dying, Chuck. For you. For your liberties. For your state. For a Congress that refuses to do its job. They are putting their lives on the line in the hope that Congress will rouse itself to act like the first branch of government and come to the aid of the Constitution.
We need someone in the Senate who can be our voice, our inspiration, our comforter, and our fellow foot soldier in peaceful protest and civil disobedience. That’s not Chuck Schumer. It is incumbent on every Senate Democrat to fix the leadership problem in the caucus, ASAP. The best solution would be for Schumer to recognize that he is not the leader we deserve in this moment and step aside. That would be a true act of leadership.
Concluding Thoughts
It is another day ending in “Y,” which means that there is another poll showing that more Americans are losing confidence in Trump. See Pew Research Center, Confidence in Trump Dips, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans. The sub-headline of the Pew article is, “Rising share of Democrats want their party’s congressional leaders to stand up to Trump.”
The takeaways from the Pew poll are the following:
Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall.
By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration’s actions have been worse than they expected (50%) rather than better (21%).
Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year. That change has come entirely among Republicans.
Republicans are losing confidence in Trump as a leader;
60% of Republicans said last February that they were extremely or very confident Trump respects the country’s democratic values – it’s 52% today. And while 66% of Republicans say he has the mental fitness to do the job, that’s down from 75% last year.
The Pew poll confirms a trend seen in other reputable polls: Trump’s approval has dropped below 40% (to 37%).
The lesson from the Pew poll is that we should focus on “expanding the map” in November 2026. There are more seats in play today than we believed two months ago. The sad truth is that as Trump tips into a downward spiral of violence and madness, we should tip into the mindset of a party that will take control of enough seats to have a governing majority in the House and Senate. At that point, we can begin the hard work of accountability, oversight, rehabilitation, truth, and reconciliation.
We may be less than a year away from the first steps toward restoring the rule of law in a meaningful way. We cannot relent, but we can see the path forward.
Pro-democracy protest photos
Indivisible Santa Cruz County "Bridge Brigades”
Portland, OR
Rise and Resist Silent Vigil at 26 Federal Plaza, ICE field offices in Manhattan. Every Thursday, noon to 1pm
vigil in Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina
.Visibility Brigade, Boulder CO,
WLA Indivisible 405 Freeway Brigade
Hotchkiss, Colorado
Naples, FL
Bellingham, WA Free America Walkout
vigil for Alex Pretti - Cincinnati, Ohio; Nurses and federal workers call for justice for all victims of ICE and Border Patrol
Lexington, Virginia
From Today’s Edition Newsletter via this RSS feed