The focus of experts in global security tends to orbit familiar threats. War in Europe and the Middle East. Trade disruption and financial volatility. Technology shocks and threats to information integrity. But the most consequential driver of instability is unfolding under our feet and over our heads. The world’s climate system is edging toward tipping points and nature is being degraded at scale. Together they present an existential threat to air, food, water, health, and the legitimacy of states in ways that do not respect borders. Nature on the security agenda A newly released UK government assessment, published in January 2026 after a freedom of information process, offers a rare view of how security professionals think about biodiversity loss. It is a sanitized overview rather than a full exposure of the underlying analysis. Even so, the central finding is hard to ignore. Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten national security and prosperity, and without major intervention the trend is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond. Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII). Courtesy of the Natural History Museum What stands out is that this is a government security assessment, and that it also spells out the mechanics of collapse with unusual clarity. When ecosystems degrade, the services they provide start to fail. Water regulation weakens. Soil fertility declines. Pollination drops. Disease control erodes. These are not abstract ecological concepts. They are the quiet foundations of modern economies. As they weaken, practical consequences follow. Crops fail more often. Fisheries decline. Food prices rise. Supply chains become brittle.…This article was originally published on Mongabay

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