[Note: I just discovered that two charts I embedded in this newsletter may not appear unless you click on the blank space where the charts are located. That will take you to the website version of the newsletter, where all content is visible.]
The Constitution states that the president “shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.”
Notably, the Constitution does not require a “speech” or “an address,” merely “Information of the State of the Union.” But the State of the Union has become an event that is equal parts spectacle, debacle, and roller derby. Rather than a somber occasion freighted with constitutional significance, it has become a national embarrassment.
In truth, most Americans are dreading Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday evening. He will lie with abandon, indulge in obscene self-congratulation, and offend almost every person and country on Earth. In other words, it will be just another “Tuesday” for Trump.
But for the rest of us, we will be subjected to 48 hours of coverage that will grant the speech dignity and legitimacy it does not deserve. We know Trump. We know how he speaks, what he says, and when he veers off script. For the brief moments when he sticks to the teleprompter, he will not comprehend the words he mangles and slurs. It will be nothing more than “a tale Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing.” (Macbeth.)
So, how can we endure the constitutional equivalent of a WrestleMania extravaganza?
First, don’t watch. No guilt. You have better things to do than watch a speech designed to insult and upset you. Any activity that does not involve voluntary exposure to someone emotionally assaulting you will be a more productive use of your time. There will be plenty of commentary to fill in the details worth knowing.
Second, participate in counterprogramming. Search for events like The People’s State of the Union, which will be livestreamed on YouTube by MeidasTouch and MoveOn.org/Live. Or watch The State of the Swamp, register at Defiance.org/sotu. Or write postcards, attend an Indivisible, Swing Left, or Sister District meeting.
Third, watch the speech with confidence and professional distance, knowing that Trump will further injure the prospects of the Republican Party heading into the midterms. He will double down on highly unpopular policies, further demonstrating to the voters he misled in 2024 that they made a mistake in temporarily supporting the Republican agenda. Trump is incapable of admitting error or adjusting course. The speech will be a political disaster for Trump, unless he suddenly changes everything about himself in the next 24 hours.
Trump’s slide in the polls—dragging his party with him—cannot distract us from the difficult work of defending democracy. But polls can inform us and help us calibrate our efforts. Trump’s weaknesses should be seen as opportunities for our advancement.
A recent CNN poll exposes the GOP’s bleeding edge. I have created two charts to illustrate the results of CNN’s poll.
The first shows Trump’s erosion of support among independent voters over the last year:
See CNN, Trump’s approval rating with independents hits a new low ahead of the State of the Union. (Note, I created the above chart with Claude 4.6, using the data from the CNN poll; it is the first occasion on which I have included AI-created content in my newsletter.)
There are few truisms in American politics. But it is a near certainty that no party can win the presidency with less than 40% support from Independents. Less than 30% support would lead to a historic defeat. In the 2024 election, Trump captured 46% of the Independent vote. Today, his favorability rating among independents is 26%.
Remember this fact as Trump delivers the State of the Union address. If the election were held today, he would lose decisively.
The second chart shows the erosion of support for Trump among key demographics:
(As with the first chart, I used Claude 4.6 to create the demographic chart from the underlying data in CNN’s poll. The two charts are slightly inconsistent due to the margin of error (±2.5 pts).)
No single cohort of voters elected Trump in 2024, but as with Independents, Trump could not replicate his victory given the erosion of support among Latinos and voters under 45 years of age. (My opinion, not based on statistical analysis.)
I do not share these recent polling results to make us “feel good.” I share them to affirm that our view of Trump’s weaknesses and lack of support align with reality. That should allow us to watch Trump’s speech on Tuesday for what it is—a pathetic paean to his wounded ego drafted by advisers afraid to tell him the truth.
Members of the resistance cannot take full credit for Trump’s declining popularity; Trump has worked hard to earn historic levels of disapproval. But the grassroots resistance gets partial credit—a lot of it (in my opinion)!
Remember that as you stand in freezing weather with a sign exposing Trump’s crimes, corruption, and callousness. And remember that as you watch him sweat his way through one of the toughest challenges of his life—reading while standing in front of crowd.
So, don’t watch, or watch with confidence. Whatever works for you.
To amuse myself (and hopefully you, too), I have created a SOTU Bingo game you can play with friends while watching the State of the Union. In doing so, I do not mean to mock the constitutional obligation of the president to inform Congress regarding the state of the union. I do mean to mock Trump, who is an inarticulate, bloviating gas-bag of historic dimensions.
Watching Trump speak is nauseating, infuriating, and brave. Why not make it fun? I have created (with the help of AI) a State of the Union Bingo game. A sample card is printed below. There are four additional cards at this link to Google Docs.
To create a SOTU Bingo game, just add four friends and prizes. I suggest a bottle of fine wine that will mature on January 20, 2029, a box of chocolates, or a Brick, a device that disables your phone’s ability to scroll through social media websites for prescribed periods. (Note: I have no connection to Big Wine, Big Chocolate, or Brick.)
Is this silly? Yes. Do you need to send me an email to tell me so? No. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
New rallying cry: “Where’s my tariff refund!”
The American revolutionaries had “No Taxation without Representation.” Anti-war protesters in the 1960s had, “Hell, no! We won’t go!” We should add “Where’s my tariff refund?!!” to the list.
As Lawrence O’Donnell explained on Monday evening, the Trump administration is backtracking on its promise to refund tariffs, suggesting that companies must sue to obtain refunds for tariffs that were illegally collected. If the companies that paid the tariffs (and passed them on to consumers) do not receive refunds, they will argue they cannot pass on those savings to consumers.
“Where’s my tariff refund?!!” has the virtue of being short, memorable, and targeted at Americans’ sense of fair play. Trump collected tariffs illegally; we paid the price; he should give them back.
Update: Senate Democrats will propose a bill to refund the illegally collected tariffs. Good move! The Hill, Senate Democrats unveil Trump tariffs refund legislation.
Good news.
US Attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeannine Pirro, has decided to drop her efforts to indict Senators Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin, and Representatives Crow, Houlahan, Deluzio, and Goodlander. See NBC News, Jeanine Pirro’s office shelves pursuit of Democrats over social video, sources say.
It is possible that the DOJ could seek an indictment in another jurisdiction. Such “grand jury shopping” to secure an indictment would be prima facie evidence of vindictive prosecution. If issued by a different grand jury, the indictment should be dismissed, and the attorneys seeking it should be subject to discipline by the relevant licensing authorities.
Bad news.
A whistleblower has alleged that ICE agents have received training that instructs them to circumvent the requirement of judicial warrants when entering a home. See The Hill, ICE whistleblower accuses agency of ‘deficient, defective and broken’ training amid hiring surge.
Per the Hill, the whistleblower, Ryan Schwank, alleged,
“On my first day at the Academy, I was instructed to read and return a memo in my supervisor’s presence, which claimed ICE officers could enter homes without a judicial warrant. The Acting ICE Director authorized the very conduct that the DHS, in its own 2025 legal training materials, had [previously] called the ‘chief evil against which the wording of the Fourth Amendment is directed’ – that is, physical entry of the hall without consent or proper warrant,” Schwank said.
“Never in my career had I ever received such a blatantly unlawful order, nor one conveyed in such a troubling manner. Incredibly, I was being shown this memo in secret by my supervisor, who made sure that I understood that disobedience could cost me my job. ICE is teaching cadets to violate the Constitution, and they were attempting to cloak it in secrecy by demanding that I lie about it.”
The leaders at ICE had better lawyer up. The day will come when Pam Bondi is no longer Attorney General and Trump is no longer president. The lawyers and leaders who told ICE trainees that they could ignore the 4th Amendment’s prohibition against unreasonable searches without a warrant based on probable cause should be subject to discipline, at the very least, and prosecution, if appropriate.
Trump insults the US Women’s Hockey team.
The US Women’s Hockey team won the gold medal by beating Canada. So did the US Men’s Hockey team. On Sunday, Trump joked with representatives of the men’s team that he would invite them to the White House, but then said,
And we have to — I must tell you — we’re going to have to bring the women’s team,” said Trump, who went on to chuckle as the American men burst into laughter in a clip circulating on social media.
He added, “[If I don’t] do that, I do believe I probably would be impeached, OK?”
See HuffPost, Trump, USA Men’s Hockey Face Backlash Over Comment On Women’s Team.
Trump’s advisers will likely say, “It was a joke. Focus on something more important.” Okay, let’s focus on the Epstein Survivors who will be sitting in the audience at the State of the Union address on Tuesday. How about acknowledging them, apologizing to them, and promising full transparency?
Merely because something was said as a “joke” does not mean that it was not racist, sexist, or homophobic. Indeed, the point of “locker room humor” is to demean and ridicule. The young men on the US Hockey Team should issue a joint apology to the women’s team and condemn Trump’s comments. That would teach them a valuable life lesson. If they don’t, that will also teach them a lesson—the wrong one.
Judge Aileen Cannon bars release of Jack Smith report on Trump’s retention of classified documents
Judge Aileen Cannon has issued an order permanently sealing special counsel Jack Smith’s report on Trump’s retention of classified documents. See Politico, Judge Cannon permanently blocks release of Jack Smith report.
Here’s the deal: Sooner or later, that report will become public. When it does, it will make clear that Trump intentionally violated US national security laws that carry criminal penalties. It will be bad for Trump and bad for Cannon.
She is angling for a spot on the Supreme Court. She may get it (from Trump). But she has destroyed her reputation by acting as a shill for Trump. And she may have set herself up for impeachment. It will take time, but the wheels of justice will catch up with Aileen Cannon. She has a long career ahead of her, and protecting Trump will be an asset for the next three years. After that, it will be her albatross.
Opportunity for Reader Engagement
Please join hosts and Today’s Edition readers Susie Glaze and Steve Rankin for a virtual house party for Flip The Vote on Monday, March 16, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. Pacific / 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Flip the Vote is an organization that helps donors strategically support grassroots groups in swing states. These groups work year-round to educate and mobilize low-propensity Democratic voters. Donor support gives the groups time to scale up, train staff, and prepare for huge get out the vote efforts in 2026. You can learn more at FliptheVote.org
At the meeting we will be joined by representatives from Flip The Vote who will tell us about their work. There will be time for a Q&A with the representative who will field your questions.
Register HERE. There’s no expected donation, but we are confident after hearing their plans for the election cycle you might be interested in contributing. 100% of your donation goes directly to their grassroots partners.
If you are unable to attend, please consider contributing to Flip the Vote’s partners. You can do so HERE.
Founding Members Monthly Meeting
The monthly Founding Members Zoom will take place on Wednesday, February 25, at 5:00 pm Pacific / 8 pm Eastern. If you are a Founding Member, look for a separate email from me late Tuesday with the Zoom link for Wednesday’s meeting
Last month, I inadvertently sent the Founding Member reminder to everyone. A number of readers expressed interest in becoming Founding Members. We meet monthly in an interactive setting to discuss the news of the day, the newsletter, and (occasionally) personal observations and developments.
I established the Founding Members group in 2021. It was a default feature of the Substack voluntary subscription model. Since then, I have not promoted the Founding Members group, but my error last month—and the resultant reader interest—has caused me to rethink that position.
If you are a paying subscriber and are interested in upgrading to the Founding Members group, you can upgrade your subscription by clicking on your account settings on Substack, selecting “Manage Subscription,” and choosing the Founding Member tier.
Alternatively, you can visit my Substack page at https://roberthubbell.substack.com/ and click the “Subscribe” button, which will give you the option to select the Founding Member level. If you are already a paid subscriber, you will see an option to upgrade your existing subscription.
Concluding Thoughts
It was a rough first year, but we have managed to seize the momentum and change the narrative. After a few months in which Trump seemed able to do anything he wanted, he is weak, off balance, and off message. Still, we can take nothing for granted, and Trump may become more desperate as he becomes weaker. We must prepare ourselves for tougher battles ahead. The good news is that we are strong, disciplined, and battle-tested. One year in, we have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Pro-democracy protest photos.
[Please send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include the city and state. No photos of minors, please. The best photos show protesters in action, as seen from the public’s point of view. Thanks!]
Cypress Park (Los Angeles) CA on 2-22-26: Walkers and a caravan of cars wove through the parking lot to protest Home Depot’s ongoing complicity with ICE.
We have a small but mighty group of regulars in Red Lodge, Montana, who have been showing up EVERY Friday since February 28, 2025
Merrimack NH.
I took these photos yesterday outside a Publix on Miami Beach.
If you don’t have enough money for your groceries in the Trump tariff economy, pay with your blood!
The second photo is what $20 can buy you at Publix. A gallon of milk, some bananas, and some oranges.
So give blood, get ‘free’ $20 coupon that must be spent at Publix where most shoppers will end up spending far more than $20. Good PR and good business for Publix, which has a near monopoly around here. I note that Publix heiress Julie Fancelli is an avid Trump supporter.
I am not opposed to giving blood or plasma myself, but you shouldn’t have to do it to buy groceries.
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