America’s national parks were conceived as sanctuaries from the forces remaking the rest of the continent. Climate change is now breaching that boundary. A recent assessment of park vulnerability suggests that many of these landscapes are not simply warming or drying in familiar ways. They are being pushed toward ecological states that may be fundamentally different from those they were created to preserve. The study, published in Conservation Letters, evaluates 259 park units across the contiguous United States using a framework common in climate science: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure measures the scale of climatic change; sensitivity captures how strongly ecosystems respond; adaptive capacity reflects the ability of landscapes and species to adjust. Taken together, these dimensions describe not just how much parks will change, but how likely they are to experience transformation. By that measure, vulnerability is widespread. Two-thirds of parks were identified as highly exposed to at least one potentially transformative threat, including wildfire, drought, forest pests, or sea-level rise. In total, 77% ranked as highly vulnerable either overall or to a specific high-impact hazard. The implication is not that all parks face catastrophe, but that few can expect stability. Priority parks at the national scale, which were identified as those ranking at or above the 75th percentile in total cumulative vulnerability scores. Caption and image from Michalak et al (2026). Geography matters. Parks in the Midwest and eastern United States tend to have the highest cumulative vulnerability. These landscapes are often embedded within heavily modified…This article was originally published on Mongabay

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