Having receded by 350 million hectares (almost 865 million acres) since 1850, trends in Latin American forests are now inflecting away from further losses of tree-covered habitats and toward their recovery. As we explain in our book Reversing Deforestation, published in December 2024, this change stems from reduced population growth and the continuing improvement of agricultural yields. But as we also point out, the transition from deforestation to reforestation will hinge during the years to come on local resource ownership, not least because this ownership is an unavoidable prerequisite for the financing of carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services provided by forests. Mainly because it causes the demand for food to go up, demographic expansion adds to the displacement of natural habitats by farms and ranches. Forest loss in Latin America during the last 175 years, when human numbers in the region rose from 30 million to 650 million or more, is a clear example. However, human fertility has plunged in the region, from 5.9 births per woman in 1960 to 1.9 births per woman today, so annual natural increase (equal to the birth rate minus the death rate) has declined from nearly 3% to less than 1%. Human fertility has fallen more in Latin America than in sub-Saharan Africa, where women still bear more than four children, on average, and natural increase remains above 2% a year. This difference in demographic trajectories is a major reason why annual forest losses in the two regions are now comparable, which was…This article was originally published on Mongabay

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