Due to a sharp decline in oil and gas revenues and steadily rising costs, the Russian government is preparing to revise the budget for the second time this year.

Source: The Moscow Times

Details: In the spring, the Russian Ministry of Finance already reduced its revenue plan by 1.8 trillion roubles (US$20 billion) and, conversely, increased its expenditure by 800 billion roubles (US$8.9 billion). This led to a threefold increase in the projected budget deficit to 3.8 trillion roubles (US$42 billion) or 1.7% of GDP. However, experts believe that even these limits will not be met.

The government is currently updating its macroeconomic forecast and preparing a three-year budget. Amendments to the current budget are planned to be made by 30 September, simultaneously with the submission of the new budget version to the State Duma.

Although the specific parameters of the changes have not yet been announced, analysts are confident that the budget deficit will only grow. In January-July 2025, revenues from raw materials fell by almost 20% compared to last year and have been declining for the third month in a row, by 30% year-on-year.

Previous changes increased total budget expenditures to 42.3 trillion roubles (about US$470 billion), but now the “electronic budget” system already shows a figure of 42.9 trillion roubles (about US$477 billion). According to estimates by RANEPA analyst Vladimir Eremin, the deficit could grow to 6-9 trillion roubles (about US$67–100 billion) by the end of the year.

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