Trump’s ill-fated, illegal war against Iran continues to spiral out of his control. On Monday, he again pleaded with allies and enemies alike to help reopen the Hormuz Strait. The more Trump begged, the firmer the rejections became. The EU outright rejected Trump’s request for assistance. See The Guardian, European countries reject Trump’s call for help to reopen Strait of Hormuz.

Germany’s defense minister spoke for many European countries when he said,

This is not our war, we have not started it. What does Donald Trump expect from a handful of European frigates in the strait of Hormuz that the mighty US navy cannot manage alone? This is the question I find myself asking.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK “would not be ‘drawn into the wider war’ but was working on ‘a viable plan,’ [conceding] ‘We have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ensure stability in the [oil] market. That is not a simple task.’”

Japan, Greece, Australia, France, and Italy all made statements declining to participate in an offensive effort to open the Strait.

China was curiously silent in the face of Trump’s request for assistance, likely because it is negotiating with Iran to permit safe passage of oil bound for China. See WSJ, How Some Ships Are Sneaking Through the Strait of Hormuz. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

Per the WSJ,

In the crude market, 17 oil-bearing tankers have sailed through the strait from the second day of the war through Sunday, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. Seven of them flew the Iranian flag, suggesting they carried Tehran’s crude. It wasn’t clear where they were sailing, but China buys most of Iran’s sanctioned oil. Just one of the 17 tankers, managed by Associated Maritime in Hong Kong, is sailing toward Europe.

Per a variety of sources, oil and LNG headed for Turkey, India, and Pakistan have been allowed safe transit by Iran since it closed the strait:

In short, Iran is preferentially allowing oil to flow to countries that are either opposed to the US war effort or not supporting the US in its war against Iran.

This situation has enraged Trump, who has reportedly “pressed” the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, to reopen the Strait immediately. See Daily Beast, Donald Trump Frustrated With Favorite General Over Consequences of His Own Actions.

Per the Daily Beast (summarizing reporting from various sources),

The New York Times reported Sunday that the president ”pressed” Caine in the Oval Office last week about why the Strait of Hormuz could not simply be reopened. The problem, as the Times reported, is that Iran can still threaten commercial traffic in the narrow waterway with small boats, mobile weapons and explosive devices, even after major damage to its conventional forces. The risk has kept many shipowners and insurers wary of sending tankers through the strait.

Trump’s apparent frustration with Caine is notable. He is not just the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff but is one of the few senior military figures Trump has openly admired.

Notably, General Caine repeatedly warned Trump before the war that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz—a prospect that Trump waved off, saying that Iran would surrender quickly.

The notion that naval vessels would “escort” large cargo vessels through the Strait in the face of enemy fire is a romanticized notion that harkens back to sailing ships armed with cannons firing on stone forts. In an era of high-speed, remote-controlled sea drones, the threat to military escorts and cargo ships is significant, even before considering the danger posed by sea mines.

U.S. Navy officials told the WSJ that U.S. warships and commercial vessels would face enormous risks in convoys, describing the Strait of Hormuz as an Iranian “kill box.“ (The US Navy is currently sitting outside of the Persian Gulf, out of range of Iranian missiles.)

Moreover, all of the specialty “insurance clubs” that underwrite very large container vessels have cancelled all existing war risk policies, and new policies are so expensive that they are effectively unavailable. Only “dark fleet” ships that transport sanctioned oil are likely to risk passage without insurance. See generally, Windward, What Is the Dark Fleet? How Shadow Tankers Fund Sanctions.

Even without providing dangerous escort services for commercial ships, maintaining combat readiness or operations over a long period is dangerous business. For example, a fire that started in a laundry room on the USS Ford raged for 30 hours and burned the sleeping quarters of 600 sailors. NYTimes, Fire on U.S. Aircraft Carrier Raged for Hours, Sailors Say. (Gift article. Accessible to all.)

The USS Ford is currently in the 10th month of deployment, having been whipsawed from the Mediterranean, the Pacific (off Venezuela), and then to the Middle East. The crew has been told to expect the current deployment to last through May—which would be the longest post-Vietnam deployment of any aircraft carrier.

Per the Times,

The Navy kept aircraft carriers deployed for nine months at a time, sometimes a little longer, during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But deployments are not usually extended past six months. Longer than that, Navy experts say, is very difficult for both the ship and the crew.

“Ships get tired too, and they get beat up over the course of long deployments,” said Rear Adm. John F. Kirby, a retired naval officer . . . . “You can’t run a ship that long and that hard and expect her and her crew to perform at peak capacity.”

The US Central Command is preparing for a war that lasts through September—a slow-rolling, unfolding disaster in the making for the economy and the Republican Party.

Given the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining lengthy military operations, what is the way out of this quagmire?

The answer is twofold. Public opposition to the war exceeds support for the war by a 10-to-15-point margin in most polls—a margin that will likely increase with each new casualty, aircraft loss, and commercial shipping attack. If opposition to the war steadily increases each week, Trump’s enablers will begin nudging him to declare victory and cease hostilities. A massive turnout on March 28 for No Kings Day III will go a long way to stiffening the spines of Trump’s advisers. (See Concluding Thoughts.)

Second (and sadly), the most likely reason for Trump to cease hostilities will be pressure from the business community—airlines, trucking, utilities, farmers, and manufacturers. Their implicit deal with Trump is that he will destroy the regulatory state, and they will make obscene profits. But as the price of everything that touches oil rises, business costs will rise while consumer purchasing power decreases. Business profits will suffer, and Trump’s corporate overlords will say, “Enough.”

While it will take decades to repair the damage from Trump’s war, we can hasten the day when we begin the process of rehabilitation and rebuilding. The sooner we make that happen, the better.

Senate to hold floor debate on the SAVE Act.

Majority Leader John Thune has figured out a way to allow a floor debate on the SAVE Act while leaving the filibuster intact—which means that after a long, ugly fight, the SAVE Act will not advance to a final vote because the filibuster will block cloture (i.e., cutting off debate).

Why does holding a lengthy, ugly floor debate that will not lead to passage of the SAVE Act make any sense? It doesn’t, unless you are one of the extremists in the Senate GOP caucus and you want a vicious floor fight to prove your loyalty to Trump.

In the meantime, business in the Senate will grind to a halt as “the world’s most deliberative body” ignores the fact that an illegal war is raging in the Middle East, and pedophiles are breathing a sigh of relief as progress on the Epstein files grinds to a halt.

See The Hill, Trump allies plan Senate floor takeover to pass SAVE America Act.

As explained in the Hill,

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), a leading proponent of the bill, says Trump wants to see Republicans go all out and is envisioning an epic floor fight, like the two-month battle that preceded the Senate’s passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

“What I want to do is try to maximize the period of time in which we debate it,” Lee said.

“The extent of his satisfaction with the process will depend on whether in [Trump’s] view we gave it everything we have,” [Mike Lee] said.

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) said Republicans are still “working through” their floor strategy but are preparing for a battle.

Asked if Republicans would hold the floor for quite a while, Britt declared: “Heck yeah.”

Senator Mike Lee is laboring under the delusion that the SAVE Act will become more popular over time and that Democrats will slowly see the wisdom in making it more difficult for married and divorced women and people without passports to vote. (That was sarcasm; no angry emails, please.)

Senator Lee said,

“Debating a bill that continues to get more popular even as people are trying to slow it down and stop it and obstruct it sometimes sharpens the minds of individual lawmakers and makes them more amenable in the end to negotiation,” Lee added. “That’s what we’re looking at here.”

Senate Majority Leader Thune has reiterated that Republicans do not have the votes to carve out an exception to the filibuster or to force Democrats to engage in a “talking filibuster,” which would (in theory) lead to a floor vote after Democrats ran out of things to say in opposition to the SAVE Act.

So, the fight over the SAVE Act will suddenly consume a huge amount of political coverage in the media for the indefinite future. But the SAVE Act does not have enough votes to pass in the Senate—unless seven Democrats decide to support the bill and support cloture to bring debate to an end and allow a floor vote. That is not going to happen.

A frightening story about the corruption in Polymarket betting.

Polymarket is an offshore prediction market platform that operates using cryptocurrency and allows anonymous users to bet on virtually any real-world event. As a result, people with inside knowledge will bet on things like, “Will the US attack Iran on February 28, 2026?”

Obviously, US military and political insiders possessed confidential information on that question and may have used national security secrets to make bets that paid out millions of dollars. There is strong circumstantial evidence that “insider” betting by people with access to national security secrets took place in the run-up to the Iran War. See Bloomberg, (3/1/26) Polymarket Iran Bets Hit $529 Million as New Wallets Raise Insider Concerns.

A shocking story in the Times of Israel highlights an even deeper level of (attempted) corruption. A reporter published a story about a missile attack on Israel, writing that an Iranian missile evaded Israeli air defenses and landed in a deserted field. The reporter then began getting death threats telling him to change his story to say that the missile was intercepted and that debris from the intercepted missile landed in the field. See Times of Israel, Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story.

So we are now faced with the prospect that headlines we read will be dictated by crypto-gamblers seeking to maximize their return on anonymous bets by threatening to kill reporters. What could go wrong?

Given that bets are anonymous and made and paid in cryptocurrency, the opportunity for corruption is manifest. Although Polymarket and other crypto betting platforms are trying to establish themselves in the US in ways that comply with US law, those efforts are slow and have achieved limited success.

From my perspective, the crypto betting markets are a corrosive influence on democracy, encourage corruption by public servants with access to national security information, and incentivize criminal syndicates to control how the news is reported. Betting in offshore crypto markets should be banned in the US, and they should not be allowed to set up shop inside the US.

Opportunity for Reader Engagement

Organizing to Win the Midterms with Swing Left!

Winning the midterms is the most powerful and realistic way to limit the power of Trump and MAGA next year. But how? Join DNC Chair Ken Martin, DNC Organizing Director Lorenza Ramirez, Swing Left’s Executive Director Yasmin Radjy and its Managing Director Zack Malitz on Wednesday, March 18 at 5 pm Pacific/8 pm Eastern as they discuss their innovative new programs targeting Congressional districts most likely to decide whether we win back the House this November. We all need to work collaboratively. If that happens, we’ll have a much better chance of winning Democratic majorities in Congress during the midterms. Wednesday night’s conversation is a big step in that direction. Please sign up here.

Concluding Thoughts

We need to make the No Kings Day protest on March 28 as big as possible—as in tens of millions of participants. The best way to do that is to spread the word collectively and individually. Many readers are covering the “collective” part of spreading the word—including through bridge brigades, standouts, postcards, and phone banking. Keep up that good work!!

A reader, Rob O., sent a link to a helpful article in LA Progressive, The “Each One Reach One” Strategy for No Kings, March 28. The thesis of the article is that each of us should take ownership of reaching out to one person to join us on March 28.

Here is the pitch in the article:

Our mission is straightforward: “Each One, Reach One.” Veterans of the resistance movement are already coming to NO KINGS. But to spur on grassroots activists and everyday citizens to reclaim democracy, we need people who have never before stood on a protest line. We need our neighbors, our coworkers, distant cousins, and childhood friends.

A laudable goal. But how do we go about asking someone to join us? Well, the article provides some very helpful tips on how to do so:

Let’s reach out, following these guidelines:

Don’t underestimate their hesitation. Remind them it’s okay to be nervous. Tell them you’ll be right there with them.

Validate the betrayal: They are observant; they see what’s going on. It’s not partisan to be angry about the cost of living, rising gas prices, the frightening reality of an illegal war.

Help them see what’s involved: Explain where to meet, what to wear, and what to bring. Remove the mystery of the “protest.” Replace it with a plan.

Focus on the goal: Remind them that NO KINGS means a government that answers to the people—and that includes them. That the American experiment in democracy means no monarchs.

Are there other approaches that might be equally effective? Yes. But the broad outline above provides a framework for inviting someone to join you on No Kings Day. I would lean heavily on the fact that No Kings Day is about preserving and defending democracy—an articulation that is positive and broad enough to validate many viewpoints.

Consider inviting someone to join you on No Kings Day. If we all make the ask, we could easily exceed 10 million people. That would make a significant statement to our elected officials in Congress.

Stay strong, everyone!

Daily Dose of Perspective

NGC 2264 is a star-forming region 2,500 light-years from Earth and roughly 14 light-years long. The object contains a bright emission nebula (top), a dark absorption nebula (Cone Nebula, bottom), and an open star cluster.

Pro-democracy protest photos.

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. No texts, please! Include city and state.]

Belfast, Maine. We’ve been gathering each Saturday for over a year. Our numbers range from 1 person to around 650. We are now trying to have someone on “our corners” Monday through Saturday.

From some readers in WSNC who appreciate your encouraging work.

We created this poster that we are going to have at the sign-in table on No Kings Day. Please share. . . .

Warren, OH, No Kings

If Mother Nature gives you a blizzard in Wisconsin, you use it to remind everyone about No Kings 3.0 next week!!

CVI … a division of Hubbell’s Freedom Force!!

Today’s signs over I-5, Los Angeles.

Photo of our latest Sunday VB in Saugerties, NY, from 3/15. Every Sunday afternoon over the NYS Thruway.

Here are some photos of our neighborhood group protesting and holding signs, as we have every Friday afternoon since October 2025. We are at a heavily trafficked overpass in West Los Angeles.

On the Ides of March, enthusiastic members of Rutland County Indivisible braved the cold in Rutland, VT to proclaim “the emperor has no clothes!”

3/13/26 Windsor, VT and 3/15/26 Enfield, NH

Oakland, CA, Monday morning. Channeling Robert’s messages of hope and the need to show up!

I attend the San Anselmo Hub protest every Sunday. It’s a major junction of two busy main roads in San Anselmo (Marin County)

At the Alex Pretti memorial in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Half the city block is set aside for this. The stethoscopes broke my heart.

Protesting ICE leasing a building in Cary, NC

Chapel Hill, NC

Signs of Fascism - with our Raleigh Bridge Brigade members! Raleigh, NC, on the campus of NC State University

Traverse City, MI “Good Trouble Assembly” protesting 5-7 days a week since April 2025!

March 15, Englewood, FL

Photos from Grand Rapids, MI “Signs of Fascism” Walk

Signs of Fascism demo at Home Depot in Rochester NY

Protests continue in Weaverville, NC

70 friends and neighbors out in Pittsboro NC Saturday

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