Russia’s federal budget deficit is continuing to grow rapidly, already surpassing the target set for the entire year.

Source: The Moscow Times, citing early estimates from Russia’s Ministry of Finance

Details: In July alone, the deficit rose by RUB 1.2 trillion (approx. US$15 billion), bringing the total for the first seven months of 2025 to RUB 4.9 trillion (approx. US$61 billion) – far above the full-year target of RUB 3.8 trillion (approx. US$47 billion).

The publication notes that in July, revenues amounted to RUB 2.7 trillion (approx. US$34 billion), but expenditure reached RUB 3.9 trillion (approx. US$49 billion) – higher than usual and up from RUB 3.2 trillion (approx. US$42 billion) in June.

While economists view this as substantial, Russia’s Finance Ministry insists it is spending according to plan. After a spike in January, when expenditures were 64% higher year-on-year, spending slowed over the next six months and was only 15% higher than in February-July 2024.

Over the seven-month period, Russia spent RUB 25.2 trillion (approx. US$317 billion) out of the annual plan of RUB 42.3 trillion (approx. US$533 billion). However, the traditional December spending surge still lies ahead.

Budget expenditure increased by 20.8% year-on-year over the seven months, while revenue rose by only 2.8%.

Background: Russia’s Central Bank has warned that the country’s economic growth may stall by the end of 2025. A full-scale recession is expected in the Russian economy as early as 2026.

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