The Ukrainian government has approved the key forecasted macroeconomic and social development indicators for 2026–2028 and outlined two possible scenarios.

Source: Resolution No. 946 dated 6 August, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine

Details: Under the first scenario, real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.5% next year, with inflation at 8.6%. The second scenario projects more modest growth of 2.4% and inflation at 9.9%.

The more optimistic scenario anticipates GDP growth accelerating to 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, with inflation falling to 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively.

In the less favourable scenario, GDP is expected to increase by 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, while inflation will decline more slowly – to 9.7% and 7.5%.

According to the first scenario, the number of employed individuals aged 15–70 is projected to reach 13 million in 2026 and rise to 13.2 million by 2028. In the second scenario, these figures are 0.2 million lower.

The unemployment rate in the first scenario is expected to rise from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, then drop to 12.8% in 2028. The second scenario forecasts a gradual increase from 12.6% to 13.1% over the same period.

Under the first scenario, the inflation-adjusted average monthly wage is expected to grow by 6.5 to 8.9% annually and by 4.6 to 5.1% under the second.

The resolution does not specify which of the two scenarios will serve as the baseline for drafting the 2026 state budget.

Background: The National Bank of Ukraine expects a significant budget deficit in 2025 (22% of GDP), with a slow decrease in 2026 (to 19% of GDP), given continued high defence spending.

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