Bolivia is preparing for its most unusual general elections in recent years. On August 17, millions of Bolivians will go to the polls to elect a president, vice president, 130 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and 36 senators. Eight candidates are running for president, and according to the latest polls, the right-wing seems to have a good chance of winning the presidency, given the steady increase in invalid and blank votes.

The Bolivian left is deeply divided. Evo Morales, the first Indigenous president of a predominantly Indigenous country, came to power in 2005 with the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party and managed to maintain control of the government through continuous electoral victories (until 2019) thanks to an administration focused on social and sovereignist public policies and a series of regional alliances with other progressive governments in Latin America.

A series of protests, according to Morales himself, and a coup d’état in 2019 ended his hitherto uninterrupted presidential career. However, through a sustained struggle on the streets demanding a return to democracy, elections were called and MAS managed to regain the presidency in 2020 with Luis Arce. However, as time went by, Arce and Morales grew increasingly distant. For several months, it has been clear that the two leaders would not form a coalition for the new elections. After a series of small victories and harsh setbacks for the coca grower leader’s supporters, the Bolivian courts banned Morales from participating in the elections.

Blank and invalid votes on the rise in Bolivia

Faced with this reality, Morales has not only called on his supporters to cast invalid votes in the upcoming elections but is also actively campaigning for people to annul their votes. The official campaign for null votes began in the Santa Cruz region. Leader Reynaldo Ezequiel said: “Today, the Bolivian people have no candidate because Evo is not on the ballot.”

For now, polls show that null and blank votes are growing among Bolivians. On July 13, 20.7% said they would cast a spoiled ballot or leave their vote blank. Two weeks later, that percentage rose to 21.7%, reflecting sustained growth.

What surprises many is that this percentage, which is above the historic 5% that null and blank votes usually obtain, exceeds the voting intention of the candidates who are leading the polls.

The right wing is in the lead

Several polls give the lead to Samuel Doria, a businessman and former minister in Jaime Paz Zamora’s government in the early 1990s. Doria, a right-wing millionaire who has tried three times to win the presidency, is polling at 21.5%. “On August 17, we will not only change the president, but there will also be a change of cycle in Bolivia,” said the magnate, who has shown clear sympathy for Donald Trump.

Behind the cement businessman is former right-wing president Jorge Quiroga, with 19.6% of the vote. Quiroga, who is an industrial engineer, was in office for just one year, between 2001 and 2002, following the departure of former president Hugo Banzer. Quiroga has proposed a neoliberal economic plan, in which he proposes the liberalization of hydrocarbons, mining, agriculture, lithium, etc., to overcome the economic crisis.

In third place in the polls is a three-way tie. On one side is the young president of the Senate, leftist Andrónico Rodríguez, with voting intentions ranging between 6 and 7%. The former mayor of Tarija, Rodrigo Paz, has similar voting intentions, as does the current mayor of Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes.

The young Rodríguez is from the historic base of MAS, having served as the vice president of the Six Federations of the Trópico Cochabamba (the union Evo is also a historic leader of) and was a senator with MAS, although he is now relatively distant from the party’s top leaders. Paz, for his part, has focused his campaign on promoting Christian and conservative values. Finally, Reyes, a former military officer and two-time presidential candidate, returned to Bolivia from the United States during the interim government of Añez and has proposed a government plan based on controlling corruption and restoring order.

Far behind is the ruling party’s candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, who served as Minister of the Interior in Arce’s government. For now, polls show that he has no more than 3% of the vote. Everything pointed to Arce participating in the presidential election, but he declined his candidacy in order, according to him, to ensure the unity of the left.

What will happen in the upcoming elections?

The truth is that polls show a high degree of fragmentation among voters between the various candidates. With the increase in invalid and blank votes, there could still be many surprises. The most likely scenario is that if none of the candidates wins more than 50% of the votes in the first round (and this seems to be the most realistic outcome), there will be a second round of elections in Bolivia, scheduled for October 19.

Given this scenario, there will be a reconfiguration of alliances and political preferences. However, the truth is that it will be a tragedy for the left if none of its candidates manage to enter the runoff. The economic crisis and political erosion have made it difficult for the left to remain the dominant political force in the Andean country. For now, the right is rubbing its hands together in anticipation of a first round that it sees as the most beneficial for it in almost 20 years.

The post Bolivia prepares for presidential elections with a fragmented left and an optimistic right appeared first on Peoples Dispatch.

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