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Photo: Arturo Holme/Getty Images

California governor Gavin Newsom has launched an all-out push to counter Donald Trump’s Texas redistricting with a midterms power grab of his own, and he’s exhibiting considerable gusto for the fight:

Donald Trump and Greg Abbott are going to have a very bad day today.

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) August 14, 2025

Newsom’s eagerness is understandable. At a time when Democrats in California and nationally want more combativeness from their politicians, Newsom is engaging in a personal clash with the 47th president with very high stakes that he claims he can win. If he does indeed succeed in giving Democrats five additional U.S. House seats to offset the five that Texas Republicans are in the process of purloining with a mid-decade redistricting, then he can arguably make himself the face of a Democratic comeback in the midterms at the very moment his own power is ebbing in Sacramento (he’s term-limited). It would not actually “end the Trump presidency” as Newsom chortled in a social-media post yesterday, but a Democratic House would definitely complicate life for our would-be authoritarian leader in Washington.

Newsom’s self-confidence, however, is likely a bit of a ruse. There are three major risks for him and for his party in the retaliation strategy he is pursuing.

California could set off a redistricting arms race that Democrats won’t win

At the moment, Trump’s power grab is confined to Texas, which was already holding a legislative special session that was relatively easy for the president to hijack. Retaliation by California Democrats could make it easier for additional Republican-controlled states to conduct their own mid-decade redistricting exercises in a competition the GOP is very likely to win. Florida, Indiana, and Missouri are already moving in that direction, and Democrats would struggle to keep up since (a) there are more GOP than Democratic trifecta states and (b) blues states are far more likely to have adopted restrictions on gerrymandering (New York, for example, would have to enact redistricting plans in two consecutive legislative sessions, which means new maps would not be in place before 2028). A tit-for-tat gerrymandering battle, moreover, would blur the perception that Trump is at fault for instigating this authoritarian power grab. In the long run, this could represent another example of Trump baiting Democrats into a fight he will win.

California voters could reject Newsom’s plan

Newsom is risking the possibility that California voters will reject the November ballot initiative amending the state’s constitution to create a temporary gerrymander, which would be disastrous for Democrats and him specifically.

It’s axiomatic in California that when voters are confused about a ballot measure they tend to say “no.” There’s nothing more confusing than redistricting, and moreover, Newsom’s plan depends on voters comprehending that it would only displace the current independent commission system for drawing maps through 2030, and only if Texas proceeds with its power grab. A new Politico-sponsored poll shows Californians support the independent commission by a two-to-one margin (with 61 percent of Democrats backing it) in a straight test of its popularity. Internal California Democratic polling and at least one public poll from Emerson show plurality support for Newsom’s measure once it is explained. The outcome will depend heavily on the extent to which Democratic voters (and Democratic-leaning independents) are convinced to overcome their good-government instincts and go along with the gerrymander as a blow against Donald Trump. If there was plenty of time to make that case, it would be easier. But Democrats have to convince voters before November, and in fact, as much as a month earlier, when voters begin receiving and filling out the mail ballots they will all receive.

The other problem with Newsom’s plan is that his campaign for approval of the measure could face well-funded and highly visible opposition beyond the ranks of the Republicans most threatened by it. In particular, former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed the independent commission system when it was created, has made noises about fighting against this effort to put it aside. And just as significantly, the extremely wealthy business mogul who financed the original ballot measures creating the commission and extending its powers to congressional districts has hinted he may open up his very deep pocket to defend it. In theory, at least, Schwarzenegger is a Republican, making this a partisan fight Newsom should win. But the former governor and enduring celebrity’s vocal disdain for Trump and his endorsement of Kamala Harris last year make him more credible as an independent voice on this issue.

To put it mildly, a defeat at the polls would be devastating to Democrats in California and everywhere, and would likely put an end to Newsom’s well-known presidential ambitions, while ending his long career as a Golden State political force on a very sour note.

The fight could revive the California GOP

From one perspective, Newsom’s plan could both expose and deepen the terrible plight of California’s Republican Party, which hasn’t won a statewide race since 2010 and is on the wrong end of a supermajority in the state legislature and thus cannot block the gerrymander there. Reducing the number of Republican House members representing the state from nine to four, as Newsom intends, would make them even less relevant politically.

But from another perspective, Newsom’s gambit will give Republicans high moral ground and a good-government cause with which they can identify. One of the congressmen scheduled for political extinction, Kevin Kiley, has made himself a national figure with proposed U.S. House legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting everywhere, including Texas (it’s extremely unlikely to see the light of day given Trump’s grip on congressional Republicans, but it looks good anyway). And even in 2026, the fight could help California Republicans cast themselves as enemies of Democratic tyranny in Sacramento rather than stooges of Trump’s tyranny in Washington, at a time when Democrats are expected to have a messy and divisive contest over Newsom’s successor.

All in all, Gavin Newsom is taking on the fight of his life, which in some respects is even more difficult than the recall effort he defeated in 2021 after a major public backlash against his COVID-19 policies. If he loses this time, there will be hell to pay.

How Newsom’s Retaliation Against Texas Redistricting Could Backfire

How Newsom’s Retaliation Against Texas Redistricting Could Backfire