Ukrainian drone attacks, which resumed in August, have hit at least seven major Russian oil refineries and might have delivered a devastating blow to the Russian refining industry.
Source: The Moscow Times
Details: Since the beginning of the August, drone strikes have completely halted operations at the Syzran, Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov and Volgograd refineries, while the Ryazan Rosneft plant, which supplies fuel to Moscow and Moscow oblast, has had half its capacity shut down. The Slavyansk, Afipsky and Novoshakhtinsk refineries have also been targeted.
Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that these plants could be put out of action for a long time or even permanently.
Similar Ukrainian drone attacks last year already reduced Russian refining to a 12-year low of 267 million tonnes, but those strikes were mostly local, usually affecting a single plant. The current campaign is targeting all key production and consumption regions, which could have unprecedented consequences for the fuel market.
The strikes have hit Russia’s largest refineries: Volgograd (Lukoil, 14.8 million tonnes per year) and Ryazan (Rosneft, 13.8 million tonnes per year). Sergei Kaufman, a senior Equity Research analyst estimates that over 10% of capacity has been taken offline in just two weeks.
To cover the shortfall, the Russian government has banned petrol exports, adding around 150,000 tonnes of fuel to domestic filling stations. However, internal demand is not being fully met even with the ban.
The Soviet practice of rationing fuel has returned in Crimea, while in Transbaikal, the Kuril Islands and Primorsky Krai, queues have stretched for hours. Petrol prices have risen 40-50% since the beginning of 2025, with August hitting record highs: AI-92 costs 72,600 roubles (approximately US$871) per tonne, AI-95 82,200 roubles (approximately US$986).
Problems at the refineries are also linked to sanctions, which have hindered maintenance, admitted Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev in July. Most large refineries were built with the involvement of European and US companies, whose equipment has been subject to sanctions following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russian plants have been unable to fully replace foreign equipment even with state import-substitution policies: by 2024, only 45% of pumping equipment, 40% of compressors and 30% of reactors and coking units were domestically made, according to Sergei Kondratiev, Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance.
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