A new poll has found that most Ukrainians believe the war will end within one or two years, and 80% strongly or somewhat believe in victory.

Source: a poll by the Rating sociological group commissioned by the Center for Insights in Survey Research, part of the International Republican Institute, conducted from 22 to 27 July

Details: When respondents were asked, “In your opinion, when will the war end?”, 35% said within one or two years, 24% less than one year, and 15% three or four years; 12% believe the war will go on for five or more years, and 5% answered “never”.

Compared to February 2024, the number of people who answered “in five years or more” has increased from 8% to 12%, and the number of “never” responses has also risen, from 3% to 5%.

In response to the question “Do you believe that Ukraine will win the war?” 51% answered definitely yes, 29% said likely yes, 11% said likely no, and 5% said definitely no.

The percentage of Ukrainians who believe in victory has been gradually declining since June 2022 but remains high.

Among the respondents, 27% strongly support the idea of a nationwide referendum on ending the war and 24% somewhat support it, while 28% strongly oppose the idea and 12% somewhat oppose it.

As before, the vast majority of respondents are against presidential elections being held during the war: 45% strongly oppose this and 18% are somewhat opposed.

In response to the question “How do you see the future of Ukraine?” 73% answered “rather promising” and 22% “rather hopeless”.

However, the percentage of optimists on this issue has been steadily declining since April 2022.

For reference: The survey was conducted across Ukraine, excluding temporarily occupied territories, using computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile numbers. A total of 2,400 residents aged 18 and over were surveyed. The margin of error for a simple random sample is 2.0 percentage points for the full sample.

Previously: A poll conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Centre from 12-18 August found that 73% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win the war against Russia, while only 17% do not.

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