This article by Alejandro Alegría appeared in the August 25, 2025 edition of La Jornada, Mexico’s premier left wing daily newspaper.
Investment by U.S. companies in Mexico has remained at around 40 percent of total foreign capital this century, but in recent years, inflows from that country have increased due to its differences with China, according to official data and an expert.
Information from the Ministry of Economy (SE) shows that this level has remained constant over the past two decades despite setbacks such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and even the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during Donald Trump’s first term, which gave rise to the USMCA.
In fact, in 2021, following the most drastic closures due to the coronavirus pandemic, which disrupted traditional supply chains, U.S. capital flows to Mexico accounted for 47.5 percent, and in 2022 they also surpassed the previous trend, reaching 42.6 percent, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
While the average share during this period has been around 40 percent of total foreign direct investment (FDI), Ignacio Martínez Cortés, coordinator of the Laboratory for Analysis of Commerce, Economics, and Business (Lacen) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), noted in an interview with La Jornada that the trend depends on the year being reported.
For example, in 2016, there was an inflow of $13.444 billion from the United States, representing 63.3 percent of that year’s FDI, which was $21.263 billion.
In contrast, in 2013, the Belgian multinational conglomerate Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) invested $13.249 billion to acquire Grupo Modelo, but the inflow of U.S. firms only accounted for 32.5 percent of the total FDI, which was $48.356 billion.
Martínez Cortés noted that between 2002 and 2007, there was a greater influx from the United States, as its economy grew during that period. However, in 2010, following the financial crisis, U.S. investment fell globally, which affected Mexico.
The LACEN coordinator emphasized that investment from the United States began to flow again in 2015.
Martínez Cortés commented that the dynamic flows to the country in recent years also reflect the deindustrialization of the United States, as well as China’s international presence, which has diminished U.S. participation in trade.
“If we analyze 2022 and 2024, the behavior of the flow from the United States began to grow as China’s presence in the US economy declined due to tariffs,” he indicated.
“In 2024, China’s share of U.S. imports was 10.4 percent, but 10 years ago, in 2015, it was 14.9 percent,” he noted.
“Tariffs, whether under Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or Trump again, have reduced China’s participation in the United States. This is also reflected in less Asian investment in North America, particularly in Mexico,” he emphasized.
Indirect Participation
Until 2016, Chinese investment in Mexico had been low, although it has been increasing. In 2022 and 2024, it represented 1.59 and 1.88 percent, respectively.
Martínez Cortés commented that these figures may seem low, but their indirect participation is greater, for example, through stakes in companies from other countries, such as the Portuguese industrial conglomerate Mota-Engil, where 33 percent of the capital is Chinese.
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