In a shocking upset that confirms Democrats’ gut instinct that the momentum has shifted in their favor, Catelin Drey flipped an Iowa state senate seat on Tuesday, breaking the GOP supermajority in the Iowa legislature. See Iowa Capital Dispatch, Iowa Democrats celebrate as Drey wins special election, breaks GOP supermajority • Iowa Capital Dispatch
Catelin Drey won the seat in a special election by a 55% to 44% margin in a district that Trump carried by 11 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election! If Drey’s victory is reasonably indicative of the mood of the electorate and the peril faced by Trump’s party in 2026 (and I believe it is), Democrats have reason to hope that they can regain control of the House, and possibly the US Senate, in 2026.
Of course, it would be wrong to overinterpret one special election, just as it would be wrong to conclude that we can ease up. To the contrary, this result will motivate Republicans to try harder to cheat. But they can cheat only at the margins; they cannot hold back a tidal wave that will swamp voter suppression and partisan gerrymandering efforts.
For example, the Texas legislature is busy trying to create five new “safe” Republican districts with an R+5% advantage. But if Catelin Drey’s victory is a reliable indicator, Democrats have a shot at flipping seats with an R+5 lean (and more). In other words, the net result of Texas’s gerrymandering may be that the Republican-controlled state legislature has created more Republican seats that are vulnerable to being flipped in 2026!
I know some readers are already sharpening their pencils to chastise me for irrational exuberance. So, let me say again, we will win only if we do the hard work necessary to generate a wave election. That isn’t easy or guaranteed.
But the result could have come out differently. Catelin Drey could have lost, at which point the Pundit Industrial Complex would have shifted into hyperdrive to explain that the Democratic Party is on the verge of extinction.
Indeed, remember last week when the New York Times went way out of its way to explain that the Democratic Party was “bleeding” registrations and that it faced an existential crisis? See NYTimes (8/20/26), The Democratic Party’s Voter Registration Crisis | The party is bleeding support beyond the ballot box, a new analysis shows.
I had the temerity to write in response to the NY Times article,
To my eye, the better indicator of the mood of the electorate is what we see in the streets and town halls, and in special elections. Voter registration is something we should pay attention to, but voter registration does not equal votes. Don’t let anyone tell you differently.
Indeed, the graph included in the New York Times article showed that Republican voter registration had increased in Iowa since 2020, while Democratic voter registration had decreased during the same period. If voter registration were outcome-determinative, Catelin Drey should have lost by more than Trump’s 2024 margin of victory—11 percentage points!
Not only did Catelin not lose, she broke the election model and proved the pundits wrong—an outcome that was reasonably foreseeable to anyone with a window in their office and the gumption to look outside to see what was happening in the streets.
I am elaborating at length not to claim prescience or expertise that I clearly do not possess. Instead, I am making the point that the Pundit Industrial Complex specializes in doomsaying. That is what sells soap, and we must recognize that fact if we hope to maintain our sanity during these challenging times.
You know the truth. You have seen it in the streets. You have heard it from your neighbors and family members. The New York Times experts could not see the truth because they were focused on crosstabs in spreadsheets and electrons coursing through algorithms they didn’t write and don’t understand.
In an astounding demonstration of a lack of self-awareness and an overabundance of hubris, the authors failed to mention grassroots movement, No Kings Day rallies, #TakeDownTesla protests, or the consistent trend of Democrats outperforming in every special election since November 2024. Do they not read their own newspaper? Or watch cable news? Or follow social media? How could they have ignored a massive grassroots resistance movement as a confounding factor in their analysis—even if only to give it a dismissive nod?
So, my first point is this: Don’t let the Pundit Industrial Complex get you down. We should do us. Let the experts do themselves (and I mean that in the nicest way possible). They have been wrong for 238 years and will continue to be wrong so long as we have anything to say about it.
My second point is this: Readers of this newsletter played an important part in helping to elect Catelin Drey. Here’s how: 31st Street Swing Left hosted a fundraiser to support Catelin Drey and invited readers of this newsletter to attend. I promoted the event in the Opportunities for Reader Engagement section, and readers of Today’s Edition responded in significant numbers and with great generosity.
On Tuesday evening, I received the following note from Jim Shelton, one of the leaders of 31st Street Swing Left. It read,
A resounding 55-45% win in a district Trump won by 11%. Thanks so very much to the Today’s Edition newsletter readers, who joined our support for Catelin, which was quite substantial and over 1/6 of the overall total for the campaign efforts. Catelin and the Iowa Dems ran a highly focused and professional campaign in the context of highly unpopular Trump Administration policies.
In an earlier email, James Shelton noted that 31st Street Swing left had exceeded their fundraising goal with the help of Today’s Edition readers, and that Catelin’s campaign said that 31st Street Swing left “was the largest donor to the campaign” (at least up to that point).
See also this video from Catelin Drey thanking those who contributed to her campaign: 31st Street Swing Left / YouTube, Catelin Drey, Candidate for State Senator in Iowa, August 2025
To be clear, the significant financial support for Catelin was due to 31st Street’s outstanding efforts and keen strategic insight in deciding to focus on Catelin’s race. 31st Street Swing Left was a pioneer and is now a national leader in identifying key races and candidates that can make a difference in control of Congress, statehouses, and the presidency. If you are looking for a great organization to help you invest your dollars wisely, check out 31st Street Swing Left.
But Today’s Edition readers played a significant role in that success. To those readers of this newsletter who donated to Catelin Drey’s campaign—or wrote postcards, texted, phone banked, or canvassed—pat yourselves on the back! You are helping to shape history—and are wisely refusing to listen to professional pundits who are attempting to exploit your “fight or flight” response.
Stay strong! The grassroots movement is on the right path. But it needs to broaden its base while increasing the frequency and volume of protests! We can do that! We are doing that!
Utah state judge orders Utah to redraw congressional maps
Utah voters established a nonpartisan congressional districting commission in 2018 that required adherence to specific principles guiding redistricting. In 2020, the Utah legislature drew congressional districts that violated the guiding principles established by Utah voters in 2018.
On Tuesday, a Utah judge ordered the legislature to redraw maps in accordance with the principles enacted by the people of the state of Utah. The likely outcome of such revised maps would be the creation of a new, Democratic-leaning district. See CBS News, Utah ordered to redraw congressional map, seat for Democrats possible.
While the state judge’s order is subject to appeal, appellate courts usually act with dispatch when orders might affect upcoming elections.
If the decision in Utah results in a new Democratic congressional seat, that might offset the current efforts by Trump and Indiana Republicans to eliminate one of two Democratic congressional seats in Indiana. See Politico, Trump privately presses top Indiana Republicans to redistrict during White House meeting.
If Indiana Republicans do redraw maps, the most they can hope to pick up is one seat (which is not a certainty). The fact that Trump is hammering reluctant Indiana Republicans for an additional seat shows how frightened Trump is that he will face a Democratically controlled House in 2026, which could impeach Trump for his pervasive violations of the Constitution.
Both Maryland and Illinois are poised to redraw their congressional maps before the 2026 midterms. Given the personal pressure by Trump on Republican state legislatures, it is imperative that the governors and legislatures in Illinois, Maryland, and other blue states redraw congressional lines to increase Democratic odds of retaking the House in 2026.
Trump’s unlawful efforts to fire the Federal Reserve Governor may backfire
Trump is attempting to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. With the help of a Trump loyalist in the Federal Home Financing Association, Trump has rummaged through mortgage loan applications for Lisa Cooke, Senator Adam Schiff, and New York Attorney General Letitia James.
If a political appointee is reviewing private files of American citizens as part of Trump’s retribution campaign, someone is likely guilty of a federal misdemeanor and subject to a fine of $5,000 for each violation of the Federal Privacy Act of 1974. See Department of Justice, Office of Privacy and Civil Liberties | Overview of the Privacy Act: 2020 Edition.
And if the order to find selective evidence of mortgage violations came from the Department of Justice (a high likelihood), the cases may be subject to dismissal on grounds of selective prosecution, a defense that allows criminal defendants some ability to conduct discovery into the government’s motives in bringing the cases. See University of North Carolina, Defender’s Manual.
Although the burden of obtaining discovery from the government is normally difficult to meet, there is widespread coverage of the political motivations of Trump in alleging mortgage fraud against his political adversaries.
Lisa Cook has announced that she will be filing a lawsuit to maintain her position on the Federal Reserve Board. In her lawsuit, she should be able to seek discovery regarding the efforts by a Trump political appointee, Bill Pulte, to use federal resources to manufacture potential mortgage fraud claims against Trump’s political opponents. See HuffPo, Trump Foes Like Fed Governor Lisa Cook Find Themselves Targeted By Top Housing Regulator.
The widespread publicity and open boasting by the Trump administration about its politicization of mortgage fraud allegations will provide Lisa Cook and others with a legitimate basis for raising a selective prosecution defense.
Opportunity for Reader Engagement
The battle to pass California’s initiative to temporarily change congressional district lines in response to Texas’s partisan gerrymandering has begun. You can help ensure passage of the Election Rigging Response Act—California Proposition 50—by participating in a Swing Left phone banking effort. Sign up here: Click here to sign up for a shift to help turn out voters and pass this strategic ballot measure!
Per Swing Left,
While polling data shows a majority of voters do support the ballot measure, it’s going to be close—so every vote, every phone call, and every door knocked will make a difference. The Swing Left community is uniquely positioned to make a difference here. . . . For now, one of the most impactful ways to support this effort is to sign up for a phone banking shift and help make sure as many California voters as possible are ready to turn out in the special election on November 4th.
Just as Swing Left played a crucial role in helping to elect Catelin Drey, it is now taking a leadership role in the fight to pass California’s Proposition 50—the Election Rigging Response Act. Help out if you can! More opportunities coming soon!
Concluding Thoughts
Trump held an absolutely bonkers Cabinet Meeting today that sounded like a religious cult working up the courage to drink the Kool-Aid. See Rolling Stone, Trump’s Cabinet Meeting Was Stuffed With Flattery for Dear Leader.
During the bizarre meeting, Trump delivered a 45-minute monologue so confusing that it will be used as a benchmark for testing the processing power of the next generation of supercomputers. (That is a joke—at least the benchmark portion is.)
The most egregious comment by Trump during the meeting was the following:
I have the right to do anything I wanna do. I’m the President of the United States.
That statement is not a joke. See Mediate, Trump Declares, ‘I Have the Right To Do Anything I Want’ Because ‘I’m the President’.
Trump’s statement is a sign of megalomania and malignant narcissism, but it is also an accurate statement of his governing philosophy. He really believes he can do anything he wants, which is the opposite of the oath of office he took in January 2025.
Chief Justice John Roberts created the monster that is Trump 2.0 with the ludicrous criminal immunity decision in Trump v. US.
But John Roberts is also behind Trump’s effort to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, as noted in an editorial by the NY Times on Tuesday:
The Supreme Court deserves significant blame for this situation. In May the court issued a decision expanding the president’s authority to remove officials at independent agencies, such as the National Labor Relations Board, while carving out an exception for the Fed. Its independence, the justices said, remained intact. Yet the ruling was part of the court’s emergency docket, and the justices included scant justification for the exception.
Mr. Trump, as is his habit, has tried to take advantage of the court’s lack of a clear, definitive standard. By attempting to fire Ms. Cook, he has set up a direct clash with the conservative court majority he helped create. The justices didn’t want this fight, but now the courts have to stand up for the ruling the Supreme Court just made — and for the rule of law.
See NYTimes Editorial Board, Opinion | Where’s Your Evidence, Mr. President?.
John Roberts is now officially the worst Chief Justice in our nation’s history. The quickest, least fraught path to rehabilitating the Court is to enlarge it significantly when Democrats next hold a trifecta in D.C. The failure to do so in 2018 is a missed opportunity that has led to the curtailment of the rights of all women in America, as well as LGBTQ people, Black voters, people with disabilities, and all Americans who believe that the government should not establish a state-sponsored religion.
The first eight months of Trump’s second term have taught us that we must be bold in defending democracy. We can no longer engage in half-measures or use “blue ribbon commissions” to kill proposals for reform. Our democracy is at stake, and it deserves a defense that rises to the challenge of this harrowing moment.
The grassroots resistance is showing the way. Our political leaders must follow their example. Thankfully, Democratic leaders are beginning to respond to the scale and scope of the threat to democracy. It is about time, and better late than never. Let’s help them succeed in turning the tide.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
Comet C2023-A3 in honor of Catelin Drey’s spectacular victory on Tuesday!
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