Image by Cassie Matias.
Over the past year, several studies about highly dangerous signals of Antarctica on the edge of major abrupt change have appeared in scholarly publications. These studies in premier publications expose rapid changes, e.g. (1) discovery of the western Antarctic Peninsula as one of the fastest warming places on Earth (2) ocean currents threaten to collapse Antarctic Ice Shelves (3) present day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse (4) an unexpected ice collapse hints at worrying changes on the Antarctic coast. The new scientific narrative has scientists very nervous.
Abrupt changes have become more common in the climate system, but Antarctica is one region that nobody wants to hear about “abrupt change,” especially with the potential impact nearly impossible to analyze with certainty. It could be a worldwide disaster, or it could be no big deal. Nobody knows for sure. But, the crucial question remains: Will it flood the world’s coastal megacities? And if so, how soon?
A new study, Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment, Nature, August 20, 2025 serves to highlight other recent warnings. Antarctica could be experiencing a regime shift that suddenly, out of the blue, threatens some level of collapse. It could be big; it could be much less; nobody knows for sure. As a result, for precautionary purposes, as well as regular ole common sense, scientists say fossil fuel emissions should be brought to a standstill.
It was only one year ago when 450 polar scientists called an emergency session: “Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea level rise is possible within our lifetimes.” (Source: Our Science, Your Future: Next Generation of Antarctic Scientists Call for Collaborative Action, Australian Antarctic Research Conference, November 22, 2024). It’s very probable that the world is not prepared for what these polar scientists had to say… “catastrophic sea level rise is possible within our lifetimes.”
“Recent research has shown record-low sea ice, extreme heatwaves exceeding 40°C (104°F) above average temperatures, and increased instability around key ice shelves. Shifting ecosystems on land and at sea underscore this sensitive region’s rapid and unprecedented transformations. Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea-level rise is possible within our lifetimes. Whether such irreversible tipping points have already passed is unknown,” Ibid.
Polar scientists, especially 450 of them, are not studying Antarctica for the fun of it or simply to get their names into print. No, not at all, the job of a polar scientist is as close to selflessness as one can find. The rewards are few. Imagine meeting a polar scientist at a cocktail party, introduced, what to say? It is an arcane field of study. The point is polar scientist have absolutely nothing to gain by overstating findings but a lot to lose, their reputation and position. They are sticklers for facts, and they are speaking out about dangers in Antarctica. Not that many years ago, nobody worried about this frozen-solid continent the size of the United States and Mexico. Now, it’s on the frontlines of abrupt climate change, happening fast and faster, especially since 2022.
In fact, scientists are more concerned today than when a “worst case” for sea level rise was posted on MIT Climate Portal d/d June 12, 2024: “By 2100, we could see as little as 8 inches of additional sea level rise, or over 6 feet—based partly on how much we continue to pollute the climate, and partly on how the oceans respond to climate change that’s already baked in.”
Based upon the explicit nervousness of polar scientists, calling an emergency meeting in November ’24, plus new facts about abrupt change, plus extraordinary out-of-this-world increases in CO2 emissions (more on this to follow), common sense says it’ll likely be closer to 6 feet than to 8 inches. And if six feet happens to be the magical number by 2100, then what will it be in 2030 or 2040? One/two feet? One foot would be too much for some coastal cities, one foot sea level rise typically equals 100’ of shoreline underwater and high tide brings flooded streets further inland. Maybe it’s a good idea to start planning sea walls for coastal megacities Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Jakarta, Miami, New York City, and New Orleans.
A major study by C40 Cities suggests a scenario: “If the world fails to commit to the Paris Agreement’s goal of reducing carbon emissions and limit global average temperature rise to 1.5oC, many of the world’s cities will face an extraordinary threat from rising seas and coastal flooding by mid-century.” (Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding, C40 Cities, 2018)
C40 is a global network of 100 mayors of the world’s leading cities united to confront the climate crisis. According to several articles in C40’s archives, the world’s major cities are taking positive steps to combat climate change.
Still, “as with other climate hazards, local factors mean that cities will experience sea level rise at different paces. Cities on the east coast of the U.S., including New York City and Miami, are particularly vulnerable, along with major cities in Southeast Asia, such as Bangkok and Shanghai. In the U.S., east coast cities are witnessing sea level rise that is two to three times faster than the global average while cities along China’s Yellow River Delta are experiencing sea level rise of more than 22 cm (9 inches) per year,” Ibid.
It should be noted that the Paris Agreement goal of reducing carbon emissions has effectively been tossed out the window by inaction. They’re not even close to meeting the targets agreed to by 196 signatory countries in 2015. In fact, emissions are growing faster than ever as fossil fuel production ramps up, meaning a current update of the consequences outlined in the C40 study of 2018 (referenced above) would likely stagger the imagination.
In lieu of all above, it is extremely difficult to accept United States deemphasis and destruction of climate change mitigation efforts while emphasizing, promoting more fossil fuels. According to a recent C40 poll:
More than two-thirds of Americans, 80% of Europeans, and 91% of Chinese said they are witnessing the impact of climate change in their daily lives.
87% of people surveyed in the EU, 76% in China, and 74% in the US say their governments have been too slow to act in averting climate change.
In the United States, 63% of registered voters think developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress.
Obviously, public opinion is clearly in favor of tackling climate change, but time is the enemy. It takes time: “It takes tens of thousands of years for an ice sheet to grow, but just decades to destabilize it by burning fossil fuels. Now we only have a narrow window to act,” (Scientists Say Next Few Years Vital to Securing the Future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, March 6, 2025)
The referenced Potsdam study says Antarctica’s future is dependent upon “immediate actions to reduce emissions.” Oh, well! Thirty years of broken promises by countries attending UN climate conferences does not bode well for “immediate action.”
Meanwhile carbon dioxide CO2 levels in the atmosphere continue setting new all-time records year-by-year. According to Climate. gov: “Based on the annual analysis from NOAA’s Global Monitoring Lab (while it last), global average atmospheric carbon dioxide was 422.8 ppm in 2024, a new record high. The increase during 2024 was 3.75 ppm—the largest one-year increase on record. At Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where the modern carbon dioxide record began in 1958, the annual average carbon dioxide in 2024 was 424.61 ppm, also a new record.” This is already substantially above the danger zone as described by climate scientists some years ago.
The essence of the problem is the annual rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 60 years has been many times faster than previous natural increases. The paleoclimate record shows a rate of 0.02 ppm per annum as natural variability. In 2024, the annual rate was 3.75 ppm or an 18,600% increase over natural variability.
Antarctica is global warming’s biggest target with West Antarctica the most vulnerable, and it’s challenging to fully understand with any degree of accuracy, how much, how soon? Nobody really knows for sure what’ll happen or when, but one thing’s for certain, according to polar scientists, it’s headed in the wrong direction and way too fast for comfort.
Solution: According to polar scientists, fossil fuel CO2 emissions must be stopped as soon as possible, replaced with renewables, especially solar with battery backup, currently experiencing a renaissance of enormous magnitude around the world, a virtual “race is on” to see whether this can effectively defer, in time, key ecosystems already close to unraveling. More on this fascinating development later.
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