Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Eric Adams, buried in the polls and destined for an infamous single term as mayor of New York, let it be known last week he wasn’t going anywhere. Rejecting numerous reports that had him taking federal jobs or even an ambassadorship in the Trump administration, Adams said he was still running for reelection. And he made it clear whom he blamed for trying to force him out: Andrew Cuomo.

So begins the latest chapter in what has been a mayoral race without any precedent in the history of New York City — or anywhere else. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old socialist, seized the Democratic nomination and is poised to enter City Hall next year. Adams, the incumbent, was indicted on corruption charges only to see those charges dropped when Donald Trump became president again. Cuomo was supposed to win the primary and then didn’t. There’s every reason to think he is trying to conspire with Trump to get Adams and even Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, to exit the race.

To beat Mamdani, Cuomo needs a one-on-one race. And even then, he probably would struggle to win, given that he is the ex-governor who resigned in disgrace four years ago and can’t manage much retail campaigning. His new problem is Adams: The mayor genuinely resents him for running in the primary in the first place and forcing him, early on, to forego the Democratic clash and campaign as an independent. Cuomo hoovered up all the labor support and major donors who might have entertained Adams, still, if the ex-governor didn’t come on the scene. He campaigned, explicitly, against the city Adams runs, portraying it as a crime-ridden cesspool that only he could turn around. (Disclosure: In 2018, when I ran for office, Mamdani was my campaign manager.)

Adams, as mayor, has been deeply corrupt and incompetent, but crime is declining and the city, economically, remains vibrant enough. It’s not the hellscape Cuomo, a suburbanite at heart, believes it to be. Adams is now taking it personally, calling Cuomo a “liar and a snake.” If, indeed, Adams remains in the race, it might be to damage Cuomo as much as Mamdani. Though Adams bashes socialists as much as Cuomo does, he has never had a bitter relationship with Mamdani, and there’s a part of him that might even respect a fellow showman.

The damage Adams could do to Cuomo is twofold. One, he could literally take away votes, luring a smattering of middle-class, outer-borough Black and Latino Democrats to his side. He could also sway some Orthodox Jews who are still resentful of Cuomo for his COVID lockdowns. Beyond siphoning these votes, he could transform into an anti-Cuomo attack dog if he chooses to be one. He could stump around the city urging Democrats and independents away from the scandal-scarred former governor.

Adams, of course, is polling so badly that his presence in the general election may not matter much either way. Certainly, it will help the young socialist if Adams decides to stick around through November. Sliwa doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. If both men remain actively in the race, Cuomo cannot win.

Mamdani, though, could have enough cash and campaign muscle to win no matter what. He’s hit the $8 million spending cap for the general election already, while Adams, Cuomo, and Sliwa are nowhere close. Unlike the primary, he’ll have legitimate outside assistance. A pro-Mamdani super-PAC should be able to raise a lot more money. Large labor unions, backing him instead of Cuomo, are expected to pour cash into an independent expenditure. In June, with the aid of a super-PAC that raised nearly $30 million, Cuomo vastly outspent Mamdani. But there’s no indication that kind of help is arriving again. Rich donors resent Mamdani as much as ever, but they don’t want to back a loser. They saw their super-PAC checks come to nothing in the primary. Most of them would rather wait to see if Cuomo can rise in the polls; others won’t open up their checkbooks again in 2025.

Adams’s future, meanwhile, is at least a little brighter than Cuomo’s. He’s close enough to Trump and could head to the administration in January, if he doesn’t bolt earlier. Trump probably likes the idea of a Democratic former mayor of New York on his team, the way he still gets a kick out of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an ex-Democratic scion, wielding power right now as a Cabinet member.

Cuomo, genuinely friendless, has no landing spot if he loses. His political career will end. His supporters in the primary were only with him because they thought he’d win. Absent power, he offers nothing to them.

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