All available evidence suggests that America’s unipolar moment is over. Image by Jay Lee.

A draft of the latest National Defense Strategy (NDS) was leaked to Politico. If implemented, the plan proposes to pivot away from China and prioritize protecting the homeland and the Western Hemisphere. The speed of this proposed change is astonishing and its impact enormously consequential.

It’s also confounding as its author is none other than Elbridge Colby, the current Deputy Secretary of War. It was Colby who co-wrote the 2018 NDS which unequivocally focused on deterring China and won him praise from neocons in both political parties. Colby, grandson of former CIA Director William Colby, followed this up with a highly influential book, “Strategy of Denial,” in which he advocated turning the U.S. focus toward China and away from Europe and the Middle East.

“If China succeeds,” he declared, “we can forget about housing, food, savings, affordable college for our kids and other domestic needs.” This amplified what happened back on November 17, 2011, when former President Barack Obama announced his “Pivot” or “rebalance” to China. Years of warnings about “The China Threat” followed — until last week.

Reversing course

Why did this belligerent, “China Hawks’ China Hawk” and those within his circle dramatically change course? It’s plausible that they are choosing to conform to Trump and JD Vance’s “America First” agenda (and keep their jobs).

It’s also likely — and this is my hope — that influential members of the national security state finally concluded that America’s global empire is extremely overextended, in inexorable decline and no longer financially sustainable. They know recognize that China is a peer power and concede the nation its own sphere of influence.

This appreciation of recalcitrant reality also portends that robust trade between China and the U.S. will gradually resume. Case in point: The Des Moines Register reports that Trump’s tariff policies are crushing farmers in Iowa because China is refusing to buy U.S. soybeans.

Republican politicians like Sen. Chuck Grassley who been bashing China for decades are now demanding that Trump reverse his tariffs on China. We can expect Trump to refrain from taking more measures to unilaterally restrict trade.

President Trump described his recent two-hour phone call with Chinese President Xi as “productive,” and there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that the call began relieving tensions and began laying the foundation for better bilateral relations between the two countries.

Xi indicated that progress was being made in ongoing economic and trade negotiations and we know the two leaders will meet in South Korea in six weeks. Trump said that he will visit China early next year and Xi would come to the U.S. at a later date. One further possible sign of a more realistic approach to China is that Trump has paused $400 million in weapons to Taiwan, which suggests the U.S. will not push this matter too far.

De-emphasizing Europe

The new US strategic doctrine also means a de-emphasis on Europe. To that point, many neoconservatives in both political parties have lamentably realized that their acknowledged proxy war in Ukraine against Russia has, in all essentials, failed.

The fighting will go on for a time but Russia has won and Trump knows it. With Trump’s dramatic new policy we can also expect the gradual withdrawal of some 80,000 troops from Europe and closing of many of the 750+ military bases across the globe, including hundreds surrounding China.

All available evidence suggests that America’s unipolar moment is over, and a new era is unfolding. It began with the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War’s bipolar world. Now other national powers have risen to share America’s position.

In particular, the rising economies of the BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates — who have joined together in an intergovernmental organization. It is in some ways comparable to, and competitive with, the G7 alliance of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.

America is now operating in a multipolar world and can no longer dictate its will on sovereign nations. This is welcome news for most people around the globe, as . It also helps to avoid a possible conventional and even nuclear war between the U.S and China.

Changing regimes

However, for those in the Western Hemisphere, NDS 2025 means that under the guise of democracy promotion and fighting “narco-terrorism” we can, at least in the short term, expect accelerated efforts at “regime change” in Latin America to secure favorable conditions for American corporations.

According to the New York Times, the U.S. military build-up in the Caribbean includes dispatching 10 F-35 stealth fighters to Puerto Rico and eight warships to the region. One Navy official said that a third destroyer may be repositioned there from the eastern Pacific. Reminiscent of the Monroe Doctrine, the “Big Stick” may be used to whack weaker neighbors to the south, beginning with Venezuela.

But even here, we can expect that these nations and the 7 billion people beyond our border are more willing act independently and utilize choices now available to them in this emerging new world.

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