The Middle East just became an even more dangerous place.

On September 17, Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia signed a “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” (SMDA). A Joint Statement by the two nations declares that under the agreement “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”

The pact formalizes the security cooperation which has existed for decades between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. What’s new is the uncertainty over how the agreement will affect nuclear proliferation in the region. Pakistan has nuclear weapons; Saudi Arabia does not. Will Saudi Arabia now fall under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella? Will Pakistan give the Saudis a bomb? The answers to these questions still aren’t clear. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said on September 19 that “Whatever we have, our capabilities, will absolutely be available.” An anonymous “senior Saudi official” told Reuters that “This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.” Thanks for clearing that up.

Sahar Khan, who Al Jazeera describes as “an independent security analyst in Washington, DC,” says: “It is important to note that while Pakistan has made defence pacts before, none of those have led to nuclear assurances or a formation of a ‘nuclear umbrella’. There is nothing in this agreement that indicates a formation of a nuclear umbrella or any extended deterrence.”

Israel, you will recall, is the only state in the Middle East which possesses nuclear weapons. The Stimson Center observes that the September 17 SMDA “reflects growing unease among wealthy Arab petrostates about the willingness of the United States to defend them against what they see as an increasingly unconstrained Israel.” Recent Israeli acts of aggression include the 12-day war Israel launched against Iran in June with the ostensible object of degrading Iran’s nuclear programs; and Israel’s unprovoked airstrike on September 9 against Hamas leaders meeting in Qatar. The fact that Qatar is on the Saudi border, must have made the Saudis feel that the attack was too close for comfort. Moreover, the close relationship between the US and Israel makes it unlikely that the US will come riding to Saudi Arabia’s rescue if Israel attacks it. These are all reasons for the Saudis seeking new security partners.

Nuclear Proliferation in the World’s Most Dangerous Region

The Saudis claim that they do not want a bomb; they may be telling the truth. Still, in his 2024 book War, Bob Woodward quotes MBS telling US Senator Lindsey Graham that “I don’t need uranium to make a bomb. I will just buy one from Pakistan.”

It’s easy to imagine Pakistan providing one or more bombs to the Saudis. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have long enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship. Oil-rich Saudi Arabia shores up Pakistan’s perennially shaky economy; in return, Pakistan provides Saudi Arabia with cheap labor and military muscle. Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution observed in 2011 that

Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have a longstanding and an intimate relationship. It is one of the most enduring alliances of modern times. They have had a deep strategic military relationship for decades and today, they may have an unacknowledged nuclear partnership to provide the Kingdom with a nuclear deterrent on short notice, if ever needed.

The relationship remains close to this day.

Riedel continues:

Some reports allege the RSAF [Royal Saudi Air Force] keeps a couple of aircraft permanently deployed in Pakistan to be able to deliver the bomb to Riyadh on short notice if the King asks for them [sic]. It is impossible to know if these reports have any veracity but the idea makes sense.

Saudi Arabia may not want a bomb, but it may obtain one anyway. During an interview which aired on the March 18, 2018 CBS “60 Minutes,” Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman said: “Saudi Arabia, does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”

That’s a terrifying prospect. And there’s no guarantee that the Saudi-Pakistan agreement won’t inspire other countries in the Middle East to join the nuclear club. We must brace ourselves for further nuclear proliferation in the days ahead.

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