An image from the Portland protest this weekend, which started at the Battleship Oregon Memorial and wound through the streets for two miles. Picture by reader Marilyn J.
Hi, all, and happy Monday!
Welp. It’s going to be a big week and we’re off to a running start.
First, the government will shut down if a spending deal of some sort isn’t reached in the next 48 hours. We have a big part to play in making sure that Democrats hold the line on their demands. Trump has asked for a meeting with Congressional leaders later today, so there’s no time to lose. Remember, Democratic leaders tried to meet with Trump last week but he canceled their scheduled meeting because he didn’t want to negotiate. Republicans must be feeling the heat, because now he does. Good. (Americans, by the way, are already primed to blame Republicans for a shutdown. Good!)
Democrats, as you’ll remember, are asking for a permanent extension of the ACA premium tax credits. These credits, which are given to about 24 million Americans, are wildly popular across partisan lines; Republicans are reportedly nervous about the electoral consequences of allowing them to expire. To understand just how dire losing these credits would be for ACA participants check out this excellent fact sheet from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. It includes a state by state breakdown on who gets these credits (93% of ACA participants) and how much more they’ll be paying if the credits go away (spoiler alert—a LOT).
Suffice it to say that, according to KFF, if the enhanced ACA tax credits are not extended, premium payments will increase by more than 100% for many of the 24 million Americans who buy their own coverage. So this is important.
But there’s more. In their negotiations Dems will also be asking for strong guardrails around—and a cessation of—Trump’s unconstitutional “rescissions.” Democratic leadership is not talking about this much because, apparently, they don’t think average Americans understand or care about this issue. Whether or not that’s true—and I don’t think it is—we should be glad that they’re demanding that Trump stop violating the Constitution by impounding funds already appropriated by Congress. This is not the way it’s supposed to work and it’s about time someone said so in no uncertain terms.
I’ve mentioned that Democrats are also asking for a reversal of the 1T in Medicaid cuts in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” My sense is that this is a negotiating tactic—a chip they are willing to take off the table in order to get the permanent extension of the tax credits. While Democrats, of course, really do want Medicaid cuts reversed I think we all know that’s not going to happen until Republicans are out of power. Still, asking for more than you eventually expect to get is a basic negotiating strategy—my guess is that’s what Dems are doing here.
I say all of this just so we are clear on our demands when we call our Democratic representatives. We don’t want them to fold, or cave, or give in, until we get at least a permanent extension of those ACA tax credits AND the assurance that Congressional appropriations will be spent as required. We must push them to hold the line on this, and we’ll need to put special pressure on Democratic Senators who folded in March. They are:
Chuck Schumer - NY
Catherine Cortez Masto - NV
John Fetterman -PA
Dick Durbin - IL
Brian Schatz - HI
Gary Peters - MI
Maggie Hassan - NH
Kirsten Gillibrand - NY
Jeanne Shaheen - NH
Angus King - ME
If one of these Senators is yours please be extra sure to call and tell them, essentially, “I know you folded last time. Don’t do it again.”
In other news, Pete Hegseth has called US military leadership from all over the world to drop what they’re doing to come to a special meeting in Quantico tomorrow. Conspiracy theories abound. I’d simply remind you that we have no idea what this is actually about, and won’t until it’s happened. It’s definitely unprecedented, and not normal, and stupid beyond belief, but let’s not waste time worrying about what we can’t control.
Instead let’s act on what we can. Today that’s the budget fight, Trump’s continued abuses of power, gun violence, and the upcoming elections we simply must win.
So those are the things upon which we will take action. Let’s get to it!
Call Your Senators (find yours here) 📲
Hi, I’m a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is ______.
I’m calling to say that I fully support Democrats in their demands for a permanent extension of the ACA premium tax credits, a reversal of Republicans’ Medicaid cuts, and strong guardrails to prevent Trump from using rescissions to claw back funds that Congress has already appropriated. I support Democrats in doing anything they have to do, including allowing the government to shut down, in order to win these concessions.
[If Democrat add:] Please tell Democratic leadership to hold strong until we win. We have your backs.
[If Republican add:] I will still blame Republicans if there is a shut down —after all, they control the government, and they’re the ones who have allowed Trump to violate the Constitution over and over again. They should give Democrats everything they’re asking for and start doing their jobs by reining Trump in. Thanks.
[To all:] Also, we had multiple mass shootings over the weekend. This is sheer insanity. When will Congress act to protect us by passing common sense gun laws? Americans have had enough and want universal background checks, an assault weapons ban, and safe storage laws. If our current lawmakers won’t pass such laws we will vote in ones who will. Thanks.
Call Your House Rep (find yours here) 📲
[While the budget fight is currently in the Senate it will return to the House, so we’re still going to call about it.]
Hi, I’m a constituent calling from [zip]. My name is ______.
I’m calling to say that I fully support Democrats in their demands for a permanent extension of the ACA premium tax credits, a reversal of Republicans’ Medicaid cuts, and strong guardrails to prevent Trump from using rescissions to claw back funds that Congress has already appropriated. I support Democrats in doing anything they have to do, including allowing the government to shut down, in order to win these concessions.
[If Democrat add:] Please tell Democratic leadership to hold strong until we win. We have your backs.
[If Republican add:] I will still blame Republicans if there is a shut down —after all, they control the government, and they’re the ones who have allowed Trump to violate the Constitution over and over again. They should give Democrats everything they’re asking for and start doing their jobs by reining Trump in. Thanks.
[To all:] Also, we had multiple mass shootings over the weekend. This is sheer insanity. When will Congress act to protect us by passing common sense gun laws? Americans have had enough and want universal background checks, an assault weapons ban, and safe storage laws. If our current lawmakers won’t pass such laws we will vote in ones who will. Thanks.
Extra Credit ✅
The Coalition for Human Needs has launched a simple google form for people to submit stories on “the current impacts of Impoundments / Frozen Funds, the coming impacts of One Big Beautiful Bill (Reconciliation), and a Federal Government Shutdown.” In other words, if you’ve lost—or if you do lose—funds, programs, insurance, services, or anything else that you rely upon due to government cuts, please send in your story!
As you likely know, stories from real people are hugely impactful for educating the public and helping lawmakers understand the impact of their actions.
Get Smart! 📚
Today at 4PM PT / 7PM ET I’ll be doing a Substack Live with Rohit Chopra, former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and, before that, FTC board member. We’ll be talking about our rising electric bills, the upcoming government shutdown, the ACA premium tax credits, and how their possible expiration and Trump’s Medicaid cuts will affect health care premiums. We’re even going to touch on the soybean crisis and the Argentinian bailout! Oh, and student loans, because that’s Chopra’s specialty! I love talking economic policy with the experts, and there’s no bigger expert than Chopra (except, perhaps, for his close ally, Elizabeth Warren.)
It should be a great conversation. Please join us! As always you can just open the app at the designated time and you’ll see a button inviting you to hop on.
Oh, and if you have a question or subject matter you’d like addressed drop it in the comments and I’ll try to get to it!
Messaging! Messaging! Messaging! 📣
Here’s a great shutdown resource that lists the healthcare costs to each district should the current budget pass.
And here’s that same info in district by district graphics so you can post them on socail media! Please share it!
And here’s a GREAT messaging guide from CAP Action about the shutdown!
Get in the Streets! 🪧
We are now at almost 2,000 No Kings events scheduled for October 18, including in several other countries! We are close to breaking the record for June’s event!
Please make sure you’re signed up for an event, and sharing this link with everyone you know.
Win Races—Call! 🗳
Every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. Call voters in Pennsylvania with Turn PA Blue or Promote the Vote PA. Ensure that three Democratic justices are retained on the PA Supreme Court, the court that backstopped the state’s voting laws against attempts from Republicans to overturn the 2020 election.
We really need folks to help with this race! Sign up here.
Win Races—do voter protection!
Want to help with elections but don’t want to call voters? Voter protection, which covers everything from ballot curing to volunteering on voter protection hotlines, might be your ticket!
Fortunately NOPE has a Voter Protection information session tonight 7:00 - 8:00 PM EDT on Zoom. Voter protection is needed in VA and PA right now, and work is also happening in preparation for the 2026 midterms. They’ll tell you how to get involved!
Sign up here.
Resistbot Letter (new to Resistbot? Go here! And then here.) 💻
[To: all 3 reps] [H/T ] [Text SIGN PLWUWP to 50409, or to @Resistbot on Apple Messages, Messenger, Instagram, or Telegram]
(Note that for the most effective RESISTBOT it’s best to personalize this text. More about how to do this here. But if you’re short on time just send it as is using the above code.)
I urge you to hold hearings on Secretary Kristi Noem’s handling of FEMA disaster funds. Reports show that over $11 million for a Naples, Florida pier project — stalled for months after Hurricane Ian — was suddenly “fast-tracked” after one of Noem’s campaign donors texted her for help. Within days, FEMA staff were told to “push project immediately,” and Secretary Noem flew to Naples on a government plane, toured the site, and reportedly dined with the donor.
This is not how disaster relief should work. FEMA is supposed to serve all Americans fairly, not tilt toward the connected few. Secretary Noem’s rule that every FEMA expenditure over $100,000 requires her personal signoff centralizes enormous power in her office. That bottleneck has left many states — red and blue alike — struggling to cut through red tape, while certain projects with political ties move at lightning speed. Even Republican Senator Ted Budd has spoken of being unable to get action from Noem’s office during floods in North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Secretary Noem has forced out FEMA leadership who disagreed with her agenda, and she has publicly flirted with “getting rid of FEMA as it exists today.” The result is chaos: centralized control at the top, stalled projects for ordinary communities, and sudden special treatment when donors step in. DHS has offered weak defenses but has not explained away the documented texts, emails, and interventions.
Congress must act. Hold hearings. Subpoena the communications. Demand accountability. If disaster funds are being used as political favors, that betrays every taxpayer and every community waiting for relief. And if FEMA’s rules now allow one person to play gatekeeper, then it’s your responsibility to fix it.
The American people deserve disaster relief that is fair, fast, and free of favoritism. Please make sure Secretary Noem answers under oath so we can restore trust in FEMA.
OK, you did it again! You’re helping to save democracy! You’re amazing.
Talk soon.
Jess
Chop Wood, Carry Water is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
From Chop Wood, Carry Water via this RSS feed