Photo: Matt McClain/The Washington Post/Getty Images

As congressional Democrats sort through their strategic options for managing the current government shutdown, they should keep in mind the unavailability of some prize they might otherwise seek and the variable rewards associated with others. In the real world, Donald Trump isn’t going to reverse the Medicaid cuts enacted in the Republican megabill or permanently eschew Russ Vought’s claims of executive-branch power over spending authority. Now that he’s hailed Vought as the Grim Reaper and labeled Democrats as “the party of Satan,” about the most the opposition can realistically expect is a suspension of mass federal-employee layoffs if the government reopens, and even that’s a stretch. Yes, the most realizable goal is some sort of extension (probably partial) of Obamacare premium subsidies, and that’s a pretty big deal. But that would mean giving up a portion of the Democratic case that Trump is ravaging health-care coverage, so the prize would be shared.

The limited public concessions Democrats can claim have led some observers to suggest they focus on issues that the public may not perceive as vital but that really would restrict Trump’s ability to act like a dictator while providing relief to his victims. Jonathan V. Last suggests a few at the Bulwark:

A legislative end to “Kavanaugh stops.”

Ending qualified immunity for federal law enforcement officers.

Mandating that federal law enforcement officers cannot wear masks and must display identifying badges/markings at all times.

Closing the “emergency” loopholes that the administration has claimed for everything from tariffs to acts of war.

Removing the secretary of state’s discretionary power to revoke visas.

If, as is entirely possible, it’s exactly these sort of obscure but crucial legal and institutional issues where the White House will be most obstinate, then different calculations might come into play. Ultimately, if Congress or the courts won’t do their part to restrain Trump’s power grabs, the only recourse is a decision by voters to take away his governing trifecta in November 2026, most likely by flipping the House to Democratic control.

Democrats understand that unique opportunity, which is why they are putting so much emphasis on health-care policy, an area of historic weakness for Republicans and a particular vulnerability for Trump. In focusing their demands for reopening the government on health care, they are in effect rehearsing their midterm message. But there is perhaps one other thing they can do to boost their chances of winning in 2026 that could become a key demand in negotiations to end the shutdown: limiting the administration’s assault on the election system. It’s far too late for Democrats to do much (other than retaliate, as California is doing) about Trump’s unprecedented campaign to convince red states to redraw their congressional maps to shake loose a few more Republican-leaning districts, reducing the number of seats they’d need in order to hang onto the House. But there are other election-rigging measures they should try to prevent.

Specifically, Democrats could demand a hold on any steps to implement Trump’s dangerous and probably unconstitutional executive order of March 26, which aimed at instituting a national voter-ID system, restricting or even banning voting by mail, and getting rid of voting machines. As election-law wizard Rick Hasen noted immediately: “The aim here is voter suppression pure and simple.” Because of the legal obstacles Trump’s “reforms” face, and since the administration hasn’t done much to put them in place, quietly shelving them might be doable, and would prevent a lot of havoc next year. While they are at it, Democrats should definitely secure a personal pledge from Speaker Mike Johnson that he will not refuse to seat Democratic House candidates whose elections are state-certified on specious grounds that “voter fraud” occurred or that the results are too close to implement. This is the 2027 version of the attempted 2021 Trump election coup I fear most.

The bigger point here is that all the great messaging and tactical victories Democrats can devise won’t amount to a hill of beans if Trump once again denies the adverse result of an election and this time manages to hang onto total power. Nothing matters more than keeping that from happening.

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