States’ Redistricting Arms Race Could Upend the Midterms

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Texas governor Greg Abbott reportedly wasn’t that interested in contaminating a special legislative session mostly focused on his state’s horrendous flooding disaster with Donald Trump’s hyperpartisan shenanigans. But the president insisted on a totally unnecessary mid-decade redistricting of U.S. House seats, as he’s worried about losing the GOP’s governing trifecta in Washington next year. So now Texas Republicans are moving ahead with the remap, designed to generate as many as five new Republican House seats in the Lone Star State alone. This could add to anticipated GOP gains from an already scheduled redistricting gambit in another red state, Ohio. It isn’t going to be pretty, though: In order to keep Texas Democrats from fleeing the state to deny the legislature a quorum, Abbott & Co. are holding flood-relief measures hostage until they give Trump and the national GOP what they want.

Democrats concerned about Republicans’ power grabs haven’t been idly watching them scheme. California governor Gavin Newsom and Democrats in the California congressional delegation have been mulling a retaliatory redistricting of their state’s map, which might produce as many as four new Democratic seats. They face some serious complications owing to California’s constitutionally sanctioned nonpartisan citizens-commission system for drawing district lines. But the political will to get it done does not appear to be lacking.

The potential for mid-decade redistricting isn’t necessarily limited to Ohio, Texas, and California. Schemers in D.C. and in the states are looking elsewhere for opportunities wherever their party is in a position to impose its will. Republicans are eyeing quite a few other red states, including Missouri, Florida, New Hampshire, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and Nebraska. In most of these states, Republican gains from redistricting would at best amount to no more than one seat, and in Nebraska, it’s mostly a matter of shoring up a current flippable seat. But Florida has to be tantalizing to the GOP, as Punchbowl News reports:

Twenty of the state’s 28 districts are GOP-held. Some Republicans believe they could squeeze even more out of a new map, thanks to the rapid political transformation in South Florida since 2020. Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz**,** Jared Moskowitzand Lois Frankelcould be in the danger zone there.

Other possible targets: Rep. Kathy Castorin Tampa and Darren Soto in the Orlando area. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantishas already proven aggressive when it comes to redistricting. His decision to doom former Democratic Rep. Al Lawson in 2022 was just upheld by the Florida Supreme Court.

And while no blue state offers the rich menu of potential Democratic redistricting gains available in California, as the Hill reports, there are at least two others that might help offset a broadening of redistricting by Republicans: New York and Illinois. Here’s the state of play in the Empire State:

“If the Republicans are going to redistrict in the middle of the decade, then we have no choice but to do the same,” said Rep. Ritchie Torres(D-N.Y.). “Because to do otherwise would be unilateral disarmament …”

Torres said New York laws would make the process tricky, but he’s pushing for it all the same, “to the extent that we can legally.”

“New York is more complicated because of the state constitution,” he said. “But if Republicans are going to exhaust every means of building political power, then we should reciprocate.”

Torres is alluding to a state constitutional provision placing redistricting in the hands of an independent commission similar in purpose to California’s, but there are legal avenues for putting commission-drafted maps aside, as occurred in 2023.

In theory, there are fewer obstacles to redistricting in Illinois:

“Given the extremity of what Texas is considering, it can’t be ruled out,” said Rep. Chuy Garcia(D-Ill.). “They’re dismantling the Voting Rights Act and disenfranchising communities that have been protected in the past, given their historic disenfranchisement.”

“We need to look at all possible recourse to keep the playing field as level as possible,” he added.

It’s possible that talk of blue-state retaliation will make Republicans rethink plans to enact extreme gerrymanders wherever they can. And there is always the possibility that overreaching by map drawers could backfire if currently safe GOP incumbents are weakened in order to flip the maximum number of seats. If, for example, 2026 turns out to be a Democratic “wave” election, the gerrymandering in Texas and elsewhere could fail to produce the designed Republican gains while imperiling existing seats.

For the moment, with so much time remaining for shenanigans before 2024 maps are frozen in amber by the courts, the game is on and the playing field is potentially very large.