Local anti-fascism activist networks devoting extensive time and energy to monitoring the rise of the far-right have warned that we may be at an alarmingly advanced stage in its rise. Through monitoring social media accounts of extremist groups, infiltrating them, and monitoring their actions, the anti-fascist campaigners have revealed a far-right that is now attacking a broad range of progressive groups. Unions, Palestine activists, the LGBTQ+ community, migrants, schools, Muslims, women and the left generally have all become routine targets for reactionary rage.
A picture emerges that has much in common with a list commonly found circulating on social media that outlines the “early warning signs of fascism”. The list is based on a 2003 article by Laurence W. Britt found now on the Free Inquiry website. In that piece, Britt lists the features typically found in regimes like those of Nazi Germany or Pinochet’s Chile, such as “powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism” and the identification of scapegoats to distract from a regime’s failures or abuses of power.
Hate crime surging across the North of Ireland
The last 18 months have seen a dramatic acceleration in attacks on migrants in the North of Ireland, who are blamed for everything from the housing crisis to an alleged unsafe environment for women and children. Typically the groups making these claims will come wrapped in the Union Jack, emphasising a need to “save our country” or “take it back“. August 2024 saw a wave of hate crimes sweep Belfast as Muslim businesses were burned to the ground or smashed up, and Belfast Islamic Centre (BIC) came under attack. In the same month, a mosque in Newtownards was also vandalised. Things got so bad that the United Nations felt moved to step in and tell Stormont to take proper action to deal with the torrent of hate crime.
This year has seen a continuation of the pattern, with the BIC again being attacked, on this occasion by a man using an improvised explosive device. August of this year saw the Roma community in Ballymena subjected to pogroms by racist mobs, with more than 66% of the minority group being driven out by violence. Amnesty International highlighted “a year of hate and fear” and describe racism in the North as “out of control”.
Britt also acknowledges the rampant sexism and homophobia commonly found in fascist regimes. The Nazis eugenicist programs assumed control of reproductive rights, sterilising those of “inferior descent” and banning abortion for German women. Pinochet’s Chile criminalised LGBTQ+ life throughout the dictator’s rule. Today’s proto-fascists in the Six Counties portray themselves as the saviours of defenceless women and children, protecting them from a supposedly feral foreign invasion. This is in itself a demeaning framing that implies women are incapable of protecting themselves. The End Violence Against Women Coalition has flagged this trend in the far-right beyond this region, detailing their intent to:
…weaponise gender-based violence by accusing or sharing allegations made against asylum seekers in order to turn public opinion against them.
Those claiming to be protectors of women are violent misogynists
What’s more, the bigots framing themselves as paragons of virtue are in fact the type of people most women would likely cross the street to avoid – 50% of race rioters have been reported to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) for domestic abuse. Meanwhile accounts like NI against illegal immigration engage in homophobic and transphobic rhetoric claiming:
The left are trying to brainwash/indoctrinate our children with Islam and LGBTQ+ propaganda and WE the people will not stand for it.
The far-right here have also shown a fixation with schools, mirroring Britt’s contention that fascists will always seek to control academic institutions. There have been numerous manufactured panics around education of children and the places this is done. One instance revolved around the central pillar of most reactionary organising – Islamophobia – as hysteria gripped parents in North Belfast regarding a ‘Muslim girl gang‘ supposedly terrorising an entire school. Parents began withdrawing their children in fear for their safety, with the resulting heightened tensions prompting the school to inform the three Muslim girls that they were no longer safe.
Far-right figures have also scare mongered over claims that school children had been asked to write Valentine’s cards to asylum seekers, under a program called Schools of Sanctuary. The initiative seeks to make schools welcoming places for those who have had to flee from abroad. Another example of combining schooling with Islamophobic fantasies is the false claim that schools are conducting drills to prepare children for attacks from “Islamic terrorists”.
Proto-fascist influencers like Steven Baker have turned their ire on the left more broadly, criticising unions, “lefty mongrels” and the Palestine movement. In one video, he can be seen calling for “lefty hunting groups” to be set up. This mirrors the historic hostility authoritarian regimes reserve for labour power and the left in general, as Britt acknowledges:
…organised labour was seen as the one power centre that could challenge the political hegemony of the ruling elite and its corporate allies…
Modern day blackshirts assault the Palestine movement
One thing not discussed by Britt is the role street gangs have traditionally had in the rise of reactionary regimes. Mussolini’s ascent to power relied heavily on the squadrismo, paramilitary groups who were used as a means of intimidating the left, beating and killing those who were part of socialist groups or who were trade union leaders. The rise in violent rhetoric against progressive forces in the Six Counties is increasingly being matched in deed. There have been numerous recent physical attacks on pro-Palestine activists, with the resurgent right clearly seeing the anti-genocide movement as a rival power block. The danger of organised political violence in the North is further enhanced by the continued existence of paramilitary groups that possess the means, experience and will to deploy force as a means of securing their agenda.
This danger is compounded by the increasing willingness of mainstream politicians to echo the confected narratives of right-wing extremists. Belfast City Council Alderman Dean McCullough recently brought forward a motion that proposes the council:
…expresses its deep concern at the growing number of reports relating to indecent, threatening, and predatory behaviour in council-owned playparks across Belfast.
This mirrors hysteria among racists that foreign-born people are inherently threatening to children, leading to men being hounded out of local parks simply for sitting near a children’s playground, with no evidence of malign intent. McCullough has also sought to smear the pro-Palestine movement as “Hamas-supporting“. Those at Palestine rallies are frequently told “you’re all Hamas” by counter-demonstrators. This tactic performs the same function as when the Zionist entity seeks, through use of the Hamas tag, to mark innocent individuals as deserving of violence.
All these factors require urgent consideration, especially given the rapid rise in numbers at far-right protests both here and elsewhere, along with the scale of their ambition. A few dozen attended racist Belfast city centre protests in 2024, but by summer this year, hundreds were in attendance. They were significantly outnumbered by anti-racist counter-protestors, however. The lofty goals of the growing movement can be seen in their recent plans to shut down both of Belfast’s airports. Those who the Canary spoke to with insider knowledge of the plans told us that there had also been an intent to disrupt the food supply by blocking Larne port.
An increasing transnational and organised far right
Prominent figures on the far-right here have also begun to link up with like-minded activists on the other side of the Irish Sea. ‘Citizen journalist’ and ex-bank robber Mark Sinclair is know to have been connecting with sympathetic groups in Scotland. He also attended the recent massive demonstration in London that was perhaps the strongest indicator yet of the alarming growth in reactionary sentiment across Britain and Ireland.
Key organiser for Tommy Robinson Richard Inman has also been an increasingly visible presence in the Six Counties, where he was seen giving a speech in Ballymena. He also has a business locally, and our sources indicate his role here may be to groom local activists for more prominent roles in Britain, and to coordinate consistent media messaging across Britain and Ireland.
Those the Canary spoke to told us that they have repeatedly raised their concerns with local politicians and police, but these authorities are not yet sufficiently responsive to the threat posed. For what it’s worth, the anti-fascist investigators said that, when provided with the information they had collated, Chat GPT estimated we are currently at the mid-point in a slippage towards fascism.
Based on what we know, however, we don’t need artificial intelligence to warn us on the extent of the threat. A sclerotic political class and a genocide-supporting police force are not likely to be solid guarantors against the danger. The obligation therefore falls on all right-thinking people to get involved in progressive political activism of some form, before the 2030s become a repeat of the 1930s.
Featured image via the Canary
From Canary via this RSS feed