The reaction to the oral argument in the Supreme Court on Wednesday regarding Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has been frenzied, overwrought, and defeatist. Multiple news organizations have declared that a loss in the Louisiana v. Callais case will doom Democratic hopes of regaining control of the House in 2026.
Bullshit. Defeatist bullshit. Dangerous, counterproductive, selling-the-American-people-short bullshit.1
Do not misinterpret my meaning. A loss in Callais will be a grievous injury to the Constitution and a betrayal of all Black Americans who believed that the Jim Crow era ended with the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. That is the headline, that is the reason for moral outrage and unbridled condemnation of the racist justices in the reactionary majority on the Supreme Court.
A loss in Callais will be another perversion of justice in which the reactionary majority abandons the pretense of following precedent, observing the separation of powers, and deciding cases without regard to partisan objectives. That is the headline, that is the reason for moral outrage and unbridled condemnation of the Republican lackeys in the reactionary majority on the Supreme Court.
Of course, the partisan political outcome also matters. But those considerations are secondary to the fact that John Roberts will, for the second time in his career as Chief Justice, preside over the abrogation of civil rights guaranteed to Americans by the Constitution. (The first being the elimination of the right of women to control their reproductive choices and bodily autonomy in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health.)
But here we are, living in a news media environment where every development is reduced to the simplistic question: “Who is ahead in the horse race of politics?”
To be clear, the question of who will win control of Congress in 2026 is hugely consequential. Taking back control of one or both chambers of Congress in 2026 would be a significant step toward reining in Trump’s authoritarian agenda. So, the partisan ramifications of the outcome in Callais are fair topics for political analysis.
But what is not fair are the panicked predictions that a loss in Callais means that Democrats are doomed to remain in the minority in the House in 2026—and, according to some, in perpetuity.
As I said, “Bullshit.” We go to the trouble of holding elections because the outcomes are not predetermined and can be affected by effort, candidate quality, and external events that cause voters to change their minds. History is not destiny. Consultants’ spreadsheets are not destiny. Algorithms are not destiny. Nate Cohn of the New York Times is not destiny. We have a say in the outcome of the future, and anyone who tells you differently is selling the American people short. Wagering against the American people is a sucker’s bet.
The simplistic analysis that says, “Loss in Callais = Republicans retain control of the House,” ignores the huge shifts in voter sentiment sweeping the nation as we speak. It presumes that the 2024 voting patterns and turnout rates are chiseled in stone. They are not! Voting patterns in 2024 were anomalous in many ways, and are now reverting to the mean and beyond.
Trump has lost his advantage on every issue that carried him to victory in 2024—the economy and inflation, immigration, jobs, health care, and crime. His favorability rating is significantly underwater in all but 7 states. He is losing ground in nearly every cohort that broke in his favor in 2024—Latinos, independents, young voters, older voters, and women. He is holding ground only with white males with a high school education or less. See The Economist, Donald Trump’s approval rating.
These polling results do not guarantee Democratic success in 2026. But they do say that declaring defeat over a potential loss in Callais is ludicrous. Indeed, premature predictions of defeat are dangerous, counterproductive, and sell the American people short.
Every seat we win matters—even if Democrats remain in the minority in the House. Control matters, but so do margins. See, for example, the current House margin of control, where Republicans are at the mercy of a small handful of disaffected members like Marjorie Taylor Greene.
That is why predicting defeat is dangerous and counterproductive. If media pundits tell Democrats that efforts to win in 2026 don’t matter because control of the House is predetermined by Callais, Democrats might believe the predictions and give up before the first vote is cast.
So, here is my advice: Turn off and tune out those who are ready to declare defeat before the battle has been joined. You have agency; you can influence the future. Use that ability to the maximum extent possible!
Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals upholds injunction against deploying National Guard troops in Chicago.
A three-judge panel of the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a federal district court’s injunction blocking deployment of the National Guard to Chicago. See Talking Points Memo, 7th Circuit: ‘The Administration Remains Barred From Deploying the National Guard of the United States Within Illinois’.
The opinion is noteworthy for stating truisms about democracy that have been taken for granted and are now under threat. The panel wrote:
Political opposition is not rebellion. A protest does not become a rebellion merely because the protestors advocate for myriad legal or policy changes, are well organized, call for significant changes to the structure of the U.S. government, use civil disobedience as a form of protest, or exercise their Second Amendment right to carry firearms as the law currently allows.
Nor does a protest become a rebellion merely because of sporadic and isolated incidents of unlawful activity or even violence committed by rogue participants in the protest.
Well said! Still, it is sad that a court had to remind the Trump administration of those bedrock facts of democracy.
Senior Admiral in charge of US Navy deployment in the Caribbean steps down.
The admiral in charge of US Naval operations in the Caribbean is stepping down in the midst of US attacks on Venezuelan ships in international waters. See New York Times, Military Commander Overseeing Escalating Attacks Off Venezuela Coast Is Stepping Down, Officials Say. (Accessible to all.)
Per the Times,
It was unclear why Admiral Holsey is suddenly departing, less than a year into what is typically a three-year job, and in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career. But one current and one former U.S. official, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters, said that Admiral Holsey had raised concerns about the mission and the attacks on the alleged drug boats.
Reading between the lines, Admiral Holsey’s sudden departure is a sign that senior military leaders do not believe the attacks against Venezuelan ships are lawful. If the departure is in protest over an unlawful policy, that is a good sign—and we need more of it by military officers who refuse to obey unlawful orders!
DOJ indicts former Trump National Security Adviser, John Bolton.
Trump’s former National Security Adviser, John Bolton, was indicted for mishandling classified information. See Vox, John Bolton indictment: What to know about charges against Trump’s former national security adviser.
Bolton was a prodigious note-taker and kept track of his daily conversations with Trump—a habit that drove Trump to distraction. At some point, Bolton sent those notes to his home (to his wife and daughter) using a commercial email account (AOL). The FBI searched Bolton’s home a few months ago and recovered some documents bearing classification markings.
Like James Comey, Letitia James, and Lisa Cook, Bolton is on Trump’s political enemies list. Here, the irony is even more pronounced: Trump was accused of much more egregious violations of the statute prohibiting retention of classified documents. One technical defense that Bolton may have available is that criminal liability attaches if the government makes a demand for the return of the classified material and the defendant refuses to return the documents (as Trump did).
Bolton pushed back against the indictment in stark terms. See Axios, John Bolton reacts to indictment: Likens Trump admin to Stalin secret police.
Per Axios, Bolton said,
Then came [Trump’s second term, which] embodies what Joseph Stalin’s head of secret police once said, ‘You show me the man, and I’ll show you the crime.’
These charges are not just about his focus on me or my diaries, but his intensive effort to intimidate his opponents, to ensure that he alone determines what is said about his conduct.
Two more universities reject Trump’s blackmail “compact”
The University of Southern California (USC) and the University of Pennsylvania have joined MIT and Brown in rejecting Trump’s “compact.” See Inside Higher Education, Penn, U of Southern California Reject Trump Compact.
Four down, only five more to go!
Opportunities for Reader Engagement
Vote-Yes-On-Prop 50 Postcard Initiative
If you order right away, you can still do a packet; they arrive in a few days. Help the fight for YES on Prop 50 with super-easy-to-do jumbo postcards that only require 3 words of handwriting (”Dear Sally,” and your sign-off) and come with pre-printed address labels!
Cards come in packs of 250, and can be completed by most people in less than 3 hours per pack. You provide postage of 78 cents per card ($195 total for postage for packet of 250…invite some friends to divide and conquer with you).
No charge for cards or for shipping via priority mail anywhere in the USA. The cards are clear, persuasive, and eye-catching. Contact geraldine.alpert@gmail.com if you can help!
Deadline to mail is October 26th. SOON! Again, please note: Because these cards are jumbo size, they require a 1st class postage stamp—not a postcard stamp!
Join Swing Left / Inland Valley (near Los Angeles) for fundraising event.
Join Swing Left Inland Valley on Sunday, October 26, 2:00 - 5:00 pm at the dA Center for the Arts in Pomona (40 miles east of Los Angeles) for an afternoon of community, art, and fundraising: 100% of the ticket price of $40 per person (or feel free to give more) will go to Swing Left’s 2026 House Democratic Defense Fund. We will also be selling raffle tickets for fun prizes to support the Pomona Economic Opportunity Center, working to advocate, assist, and protect our immigrant community.
For more info and to sign up to attend our event, click here: https://www.mobilize.us/swingleft/event/825026/.
If you are unable to attend our fundraising event, please consider making a contribution, whatever the amount. Here’s the link to donate: https://swingleft.org/fundraise/buildthehouse
Concluding Thoughts
Senate Democrats continue to hold tight in their opposition to a continuing resolution by Republicans. Democrats voted down a continuing resolution for the tenth time on Thursday. See The Guardian, US Senate vote to end government shutdown fails for 10th time | US federal government shutdown 2025.
In response, GOP Majority Leader John Thune suggested that he would introduce a defense spending bill for a vote. (Republicans must bring twelve separate spending bills to the Senate floor for votes to pass the 2026 budget.)
Thune apparently believes that returning to regular order and bringing legislation to the Senate floor after it has been approved by the relevant committees is a brilliant strategic move. To the contrary, that is how the Senate should operate: Bring appropriations bills to the Senate for debate and vote. Democrats can then make their case to the American people for why the bill deserves support or opposition.
So, it is possible that the way out of the shutdown is for Senate Republicans to do their job and bring the 12 appropriations bills to the floor for votes. The government would slowly reopen, department by department. Of course, Speaker Mike Johnson would have to bring the House back into session, at which point the Epstein discharge petition would take effect and force a vote on the release of the Epstein files.
In the meantime, kudos to Senate Democrats for not capitulating to Trump. It is absolutely the right strategy as millions of Americans prepare to engage in pro-democracy rallies to protest Trump’s monarchical ambitions.
Stay strong! Talk to you tomorrow!
Protest Photos
Below, Burlington, MA, ICE Detention Center:
Below, Berkeley, CA:
Below, two photos from MidCape Indivisible/ Women for Change Cape Cod (MA) protest:
Below, ReSisters Visibility Brigade, yesterday over I-95 in Norwalk, Connecticut:
Daily Dose of Perspective
I know I will receive emails criticizing me for resorting to profanity. But as Rhett Butler said, “Frankly, Scarlett, I don’t give a damn.” Sometimes, you have to override the censors to use the right word. Compare, for example, “Frankly, Scarlett, I don’t give a darn.”
From Today’s Edition Newsletter via this RSS feed
You must log in or # to comment.