In the first half of the year, China exported almost three times more than it imported from the United States. The Asian country’s exports to the US totaled 1.55 trillion yuan, equivalent to about USD 217 billion, and in return, China-US imports were 530.35 billion yuan, just over USD 74 billion.

In other words, China once again had a trade surplus with the US of 1.019 trillion yuan – or USD 143 billion.

The steep tariffs, which reached their highest levels with China (145%), were created with the stated goal to “Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits”, as outlined in Trump’s executive order title that established the so-called “reciprocal tariffs”. After rounds of negotiations in May, mutual tariffs were reduced to 10%.

However, Trump later stated that total tariffs for China would remain at 55%, comprising 20% from the “fentanyl issue” – the US blames China for the entry of substances used in opioid production into US territory – and another 25% from previous tariffs. The China-US trade surplus in the first half of this year, in fact, represents a decrease compared to the same period in 2024, when the trade surplus was 1.14 trillion yuan (about USD 160 billion).

However, China’s performance in the first half shows a reality far from what the US president announced or described. In May, Trump stated that China was “doing very badly”. Shortly after, upon announcing the first conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the US leader changed his tone. “We don’t want to hurt China. China has been hurt a lot; they are closing factories, they are having a lot of unrest, and they were very happy to be able to do something with us,” he said.

Economist Ding Yifang told Brasil de Fato that China’s retaliation played a role in the reduction of Chinese exports to the US. “China reinforced control over the export of rare earths to the US, which caused many problems in the US manufacturing industry, especially the automotive industry,” explains Ding, who is a senior researcher at the Taihe Institute.

The economist also notes that trade resumed growth in June after the easing of both China’s control over rare earth exports to the US and the ban on semiconductor sales to China, resulting from negotiations between the two governments in London. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s exports to the US in June increased by 5.8% compared to the same month last year, and one percentage point compared to May. Imports, after a decline in May (-3.4%), grew again by 1.1% in June compared to the same month last year.

It is still too early to determine that the steep tariffs failed in their goal of balancing exports and imports with China. But considering, on the one hand, that the reduction of tariffs allowed the resumption of bilateral trade in June, and on the other hand, the fact that the agreements do not bring new concessions from the Chinese side (at least what is publicly known), there seems to be no reason for a different scenario by the end of this year.

Decline with the US compensated by market diversification

Trade between the two countries in the first half of 2025 declined. Chinese imports from the United States fell by 7.7%, and China’s exports to the North American country plunged by 9.9%. These numbers were driven by the significant year-on-year decline in trade in the second quarter: a fall of 20.8%.

This reduction with the US was, to some extent, compensated by China’s two main trading partners: the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU). ASEAN became China’s main trading partner in 2020, surpassing the US and EU. In the first six months of this year, ASEAN accounted for 16.8% of China’s total foreign trade (3.67 trillion yuan, about USD 514 billion). Exports increased by 14.3% and imports by 2.3%.

In the case of the EU, in second place, there was an increase in trade volume (3.5%), totaling 2.82 trillion yuan (about USD 395 billion), and representing 12.9% of the total. China’s total imports fell by 2.7%, partly driven by the large 20.8% drop in trade volume with the United States in the second quarter.

China’s overall exports, however, grew by 7.2%. China’s overall trade with the BRICS also increased. In the first half of this year, China’s imports and exports with other BRICS members and partner countries reached 6.11 trillion yuan (about USD 856 billion), an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, Lyu Daliang, head of the Department of Statistics and Analysis of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference last week.

Read more: Second China-Central Asia summit concludes in Astana with call for multipolar world order

The element of domestic consumption in growth

The increase in trade with other countries and regions was an important factor in China’s first-half economic results, but domestic demand was the main driver of growth.

In this regard, consumption was the main highlight. The Chinese government continued with a strategy launched in 2024 to promote consumption, which is the Action Plan to Promote the Exchange of Consumer Goods. The central government allocated 81 billion yuan (USD 11.3 billion) for this campaign, according to data from the Ministry of Finance.

The program offers subsidies of up to 20% for people to exchange home appliances, vehicles, and other products for newer, more energy-efficient models. According to Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao, the exchange program generated more than 2.9 trillion yuan (about USD 407 billion) in sales revenue from January to June this year, “benefiting about 400 million participants through subsidies and various incentives.”

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