Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Virginia’s off-year elections have predictably lined up as a negative referendum on Donald Trump’s fractious second-term agenda. But while the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate, the centrist congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, looks to be cruising toward a comfortable win over Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, there’s trouble two spots downballot. A scandal involving newly unearthed 2022 text messages from attorney general nominee Jay Jones has roiled his close race against incumbent Republican Jason Miyares and discomfited his ticket-mates (statewide candidates in Virginia run separately but often campaign together). While Spanberger and the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, Ghazala Hamshi, have denounced the texts, which wished terrible deaths for a Republican legislative leader and his family, they haven’t asked Jones to withdraw from the race as the GOP and its allied media have predictably demanded.

So Virginia Democrats have been thrown off-balance, and limited polling shows Jones in serious trouble. Hamshi’s race against Republican John Reid for the LG position is also very close. But Republican hopes that the scandal would derail Spanberger’s campaign don’t look to be realistic at all. For one thing, Jones’s troubles are mostly just convincing voters to skip the AG race rather than voting Republican, which mitigates the damage to his own candidacy and isolates the fallout. For another, Donald Trump is just a lodestone for the GOP that’s too difficult to throw off, as veteran Virginia political reporter Jeff Schapiro recently observed:

The ongoing federal government shutdown, triggered Oct. 1 by a partisan standoff in Congress, and preceded by a wave of DOGE-induced layoffs and retirements of government workers that, starting this past winter, fueled a steady increase in joblessness into the final months of the Virginia campaign. These spikes are most evident in Washington’s Northern Virginia suburbs but they are flaring elsewhere in the state.

Further, Trump’s tariffs are eroding by nearly 10% cargo traffic through the state’s gateway to the world, the Port of Virginia, a pillar of the coastal Virginia economy along with surrounding military bases and related federal civilian employment.

Add in unhappiness with Trump’s mass-deportation overreach among Virginia’s sizable population of immigrant citizens, and it’s clear the usual swing against the party controlling the White House (which gave the commonwealth Republican governor Glenn Youngkin four years ago) has been intensified this year. Spanberger has also run a highly disciplined campaign, fueled by a big funding advantage over Sears-Earle. So while Virginia experienced a significant swing toward the GOP in 2024 (Kamala Harris won it by just under six points; Joe Biden won it by ten in 2020), it’s still a blue state in a blue mood over a Republican presidency.

Aside from the Jones brouhaha, there’s one other late development that some Republicans think might help them: a surprise decision by Democratic legislative leaders to undertake a long-shot effort to get a constitutional amendment enacted so they can draw up a favorable congressional map prior to next year’s midterms. But since over a million Virginians have already voted early, and the gerrymandering process is extremely tentative and complex, it seems unlikely to have an impact other than on the margins.

Gubernatorial polls show no late Republican trend. The most recent publicly released survey, from Roanoke College, showed Spanberger with a ten-point lead over Earle-Sears (51 percent to 41 percent). The RealClearPolitics polling averages have the Democrat leading by 7.2 percent. The only poll indicating a really close race was a mid-October finding from the decidedly pro-GOP combine of Trafalgar and Insider Advantage, and even they gave Spanberger a three-point advantage. Jay Jones may or may not go down, but barring a shocker, Virginia will be governed by Democrats, almost certainly in a trifecta, next year.

One historical note worth mentioning: no matter who wins the race, Spanberger will be the first woman to serve as governor or senator of Virginia. That will leave Pennsylvania as the only state that has never broken the male monopoly on these positions.

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