As the world’s attention turns toward COP30 in Belém next month, the story of Brazil’s Amazon is shifting—though not quite in a straightforward way. According to the government’s satellite-based monitoring system, INPE’s PRODES, deforestation in the region known as the “Legal Amazon” totaled 5,796 square kilometers for the 12 months ending July 31st, 2025. That’s 11% drop from 6,518 square kilometers in the same period a year earlier and the lowest annual tally since 2014. Meanwhile, the Brazilian NGO Imazon independently estimated a similar decline using its near-real-time detection system, SAD. Annual deforestation in the Legal Amazon (Amazonia) from 1988-2025, according to a preliminary estimate from Brazil’s national space research institute, INPE. Deforestation also fell in Brazil’s Cerrado, a wooded savanna ecosystem that neighbors the Amazon rainforest. Clearing fell 11.5% to 7,235 square kilometers, a six-year low. On its face, the data suggest progress. The steep fall under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—first during his initial presidency from 2003 to 2011, then again since January 2023—marks a clear reversal of his predecessor’s tenure, when deforestation soared as protections were rolled back and razing of forests were actively encouraged. But while land clearing for farms has edged down, another threat looms. The nature of forest loss is changing, and fire now plays a far larger role. Forest degradation from selective logging, cumulative clearing, and the “fish-bone” sprawl of roads—combined with hotter, drier conditions—is turning wide stretches of the Amazon into tinder. Areas that once lay deep within the forest’s humid core…This article was originally published on Mongabay

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