Trump campaigned on a platform of keeping America out of new wars. He is currently campaigning for the Nobel Peace Prize. But his unhinged ravings, lawless killings of civilians in international waters, and deployment of the USS Ford strike group to the Caribbean are threatening world peace. Given Trump’s mercurial personality and profound ignorance, he is the last person in the world who should have control of the US nuclear capability.
On Wednesday, a senior Russian defense official said that Russia could supply nuclear missiles to Venezuela or Cuba. Trump responded by ordering the US military to resume testing of nuclear weapons “immediately.”
As reported by the Institute for the Study of War,
A Russian official threatened to supply nuclear missiles to Venezuela and Cuba and called the United States a Russian enemy. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlyov said on October 29 that Russia can deliver nuclear-capable missiles to “Venezuela or Cuba,” which Zhuravlyov noted are located near Russia’s “main geopolitical adversary” – the United States. [¶]
Putin’s [recent] announcements of even more newly tested nuclear-powered weapons defy US President Donald Trump’s call on October 27 for Putin to focus on ending the war in Ukraine, not testing missiles.
Trump responded on Wednesday with a Truth Social post saying that “I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”1
The last US test of a nuclear weapon (by detonation) was more than three decades ago. If Trump’s Truth Social post can be believed, he will end a de facto moratorium on nuclear weapons testing by the US. Such changes in nuclear policy should be undertaken only after sober consideration and extensive consultation with experts.
Under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the words “sober” and “consultation” are seldom appropriate. Indeed, Hegseth is presiding over ongoing violations of US and international law by killing non-combatant civilians in international waters. On Wednesday, the US military added four more civilians to its grim tally. See NYTimes, U.S. Military Kills Four More People Accused of Smuggling Drugs on Boats.
For the second day in a row, the Times ran this paragraph in a story about the US military’s illegal killing of civilians:
A broad range of outside experts in laws governing the use of armed force have said the campaign is illegal because the military is not permitted to deliberately target civilians — even criminal suspects — who are not directly participating in armed hostilities. But the Trump administration has asserted that the president has the power to “determine,” without any authorization from Congress, that drug cartels and those who work for them are enemy combatants.
Per the Times, administration officials have been unable to articulate a legal basis for the killings:
Senator Mark Kelly, Democrat of Arizona and a member of the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees, said on Wednesday that he was included in an earlier briefing from White House and Pentagon officials, but that the officials did not provide a clear legal explanation. “They had themselves all tied in knots and trying to explain why this is legal to do,” he said.
The Times suggested that there is some momentum in the Senate to restrain the killings of civilians:
The latest strike came as a growing number of Republican senators have privately expressed unease about being left out of the administration’s deliberations. Some have signaled an openness to backing legislation that would require the administration to seek approval from Congress before continuing additional strikes.
To be clear, Congress cannot “authorize” the killing of non-combatant civilians. If Congress acts to constrain Trump, it must prohibit additional killings of civilians.
Voters who supported Trump in 2024 in the hope that he would lead the US toward an isolationist foreign policy are sorely disappointed—as are many others who voted for Trump. Read on.
Trump’s favorability ratings continue a broad decline
It can be frustrating and dispiriting to watch Trump violate the Constitution with apparent impunity. Although Republicans in Congress and the Supreme Court majority are unwilling to restrain Trump, his actions are having the expected impact among the electorate: He is becoming increasingly unpopular.
Discussing polls is always tricky. Any single poll is meaningless. What matters is the trend over time among many polls. Even then, we can take no comfort from polls; they are not predictive of future outcomes. They provide a snapshot in time, nothing more.
Still, at a time when many of us are bewildered by the seeming fecklessness and disinterest of the media, corporate leaders, and elected officials, it is reassuring to know that the American people are increasingly turning against Trump with each passing day.
It is in that spirit that I highlight the most recent Economist/YouGov poll regarding Trump’s net favorability rating trend in his second term. Trump has suffered double-digit declines in his net favorability among every age cohort, as shown by the following chart:
See Economist/YouGov, A new low for Trump approval, government spending, institutional trust, No Kings, and daylight time: October 24 - 27, 2025.
Of course, pundits will look at the same polls and declare that “the Democratic brand” is historically unpopular. That is true. But there is a crucial difference between Trump’s unpopularity and that of “the Democratic brand.”
Trump, as a person, is identified with specific, highly unpopular policies. When voters choose between candidates on a ballot in 2026, there will be no choice for “the Democratic brand.” Instead, the ballot will list real people, and voters will be asked to pick the best candidate.
While it is also true that there will be no choice on the ballot for “Trump” in 2026, Republican candidates must adopt and defend Trump’s policies without question. In that sense, every ballot will present a choice between a real, live person who is a Democrat and a Donald Trump surrogate who endorses every one of Trump’s horrible policies and actions. My money is on the Democrat.
The same dynamic is repeating itself with respect to the destruction of the East Wing of the White House. Right-wing media (and the Washington Post) are mocking Democrats for being upset that Trump has desecrated a national landmark, calling their reaction “East Wing Derangement Syndrome.”
But nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump’s destruction of the East Wing. See The Hill, Nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump’s White House ballroom plan: Poll. Republicans can mock Americans all they want, but they will pay the price in 2026 for Trump’s callous destruction of The People’s House.
But it gets worse. As Senator Adam Schiff explains, Trump’s press secretary says Trump’s “top priority” is building the Trump-Epstein Ballroom! See Senator Adam Schiff, Schiff Notes (on Substack), Trump’s Top Priority? It’s A Golden Ballroom.
Got that? Trump’s “top priority” during a government shutdown is building a gaudy monument to his ego! No wonder two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump’s destruction of the East Wing and construction of the ballroom.
The Supreme Court refuses to enter an “administrative stay” in the case involving National Guard deployment to Chicago
The Supreme Court has routinely rescued Trump by issuing administrative stays that have the effect of reversing injunctions issued by lower courts. But on Wednesday, the Supreme Court refused Trump’s request to issue an administrative stay of a lower court order that prohibited the deployment of the National Guard to Chicago.
The effect of the Supreme Court’s refusal is to leave in place the lower court’s order prohibiting the deployment of National Guard troops to Chicago until November 17 (at least). See Chris Geinder, Law Dork (Substack), SCOTUS holds off ruling on Trump’s Nat’l Guard request, leaving troops blocked from Illinois for now.
The Supreme Court’s refusal to grant the administrative stay also requested briefing on the meaning of the phrase “regular forces” in the statute Trump invoked in ordering the deployment of the National Guard to Chicago. Chris Geidner explains the potential ramifications of the Court’s request for additional briefing. At this point, it is too early to tell if the Court is leaning in favor of or against deployment.
But . . . the fact that the Supreme Court did not issue the administrative stay, which would have resulted in the immediate deployment of National Guard troops to Chicago, is a positive sign. Stay tuned.
Trump announces illusory trade agreement with China
Trump met with China’s President Xi for less than two hours and announced that the US and China had reached major trade agreements. Like everything else Trump says, the announcement is a lie. See The Guardian, Donald Trump says rare earths dispute ‘settled’ after Xi Jinping meeting in South Korea.
Trump told the press that the meeting was “a 12 out of 10. . . amazing [with] an outstanding group of decisions made.”
To be clear, there is no trade agreement. The parties agreed to talk about a trade agreement. Per The Guardian,
Chinese state media reported earlier: “During the meeting, Trump said that the US and China have reached many consensus and will reach even more, saying: ‘I believe we will build a long-term, good relationship’.”
Both sides said they would not impose further tariffs and that the world’s two biggest economies would restart negotiations on a trade deal. He [Trump] said China would soon be buying “a tremendous amount of food and agricultural product”, again in parallel with today’s meeting as Trump sought to have China restart its US soybean purchases.
So, take the reporting about a trade agreement with a block of salt. All of the reporting on Wednesday evening is coming from Trump’s comments to reporters on Air Force One. China has been quiet about the details of the talks, except for the brief statement above.
Opportunities for Reader Engagement
Join Force Multiplier to support the Democratic Parties in North Carolina and Michigan
Protecting our elections in the states is critical to winning in 2026 and State Parties are uniquely positioned to meet this challenge.
On Thursday, October 30th, at 7:00 pm Eastern, Force Multiplier will host a fundraiser for two strong, effective State Democratic Parties in two critical swing states.
Join us to meet Anderson Clayton, Chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party and Curtis Hertel, Chair of the Michigan Democratic Party, as well as Martha Laning, Chair of the State Party Advancement Network (SPAN) by registering and donating here.
The funds raised for this event will support hiring election protection staff in North Carolina and organizers to target underperforming communities in Michigan.
Help canvass for Prop 50 in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles
Swing Left West Valley has asked me to make a pitch for canvassers in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles on Saturday, November 1. Relevant information below:
We could use some help recruiting volunteers for our final weekend of canvassing in support of Prop 50. Would you be able to include our canvass for Sat, Nov. 1 in your newsletter?
Here is the info:
What: Canvass for Prop 50 in Lake Balboa/Van Nuys
When: Saturday, Nov. 1 from 9:00 AM - 2:00 pm
Where: 17420 Gilmore St., Lake Balboa, 91406
Free to participate! Swing Left West Valley is hosting this event in partnership with CaDem. No experience necessary.
Link to sign up: Canvass for Prop 50 in Van Nuys/Lake Balboa
Problems posting to BlueSky?
Several readers routinely post this newsletter to BlueSky. Thank you! I sincerely appreciate your efforts to amplify the newsletter.
One reader sent a note saying that he was unable to post the newsletter to Bluesky on Wednesday. If you are experiencing similar difficulties, please email me at rbhubbell@gmail.com. Thanks!
Concluding Thoughts
The gratuitous cruelty of Trump’s immigration policies, the Big Ugly Bill, the shutdown, mass firings, junk science, attacks on free speech and education, and attacks on healthcare and retirement are having a cumulative negative effect on his favorability ratings—and by extension, those of every Republican enabler who supports his policies.
The 2024 presidential election was extraordinarily close. Many congressional races were decided by several hundred or several thousand votes. While today’s polls are not predictive of the outcomes in 2026, they give us reason to be hopeful despite the daily deluge of outrage from the Trump administration.
The trendlines are in our favor. We must not quit. We must not relent. Indeed, we must redouble our efforts. But we can do so with the knowledge that we have seized the momentum and have every reason to be hopeful about the future.
Stay strong, my friends. Talk to you tomorrow!
Protest Photos
San Jose, CA, Indivisible
New York, New York:
Eugene, Oregon:
Daily Dose of Perspective
The full text of Trump’s Truth Social Post is this: The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
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