Heading into COP30, where tropical forests are set to be a central theme, it seemed worth looking today’s trajectories a little further forward and imagine where they might lead. Part 1 looked at possible fates of tropical forests. The first act of the forest crisis was destruction. The second, if there is to be one, must be design—deliberate, structural, and sustained. The world already knows what is burning; what it hasn’t decided is whether it truly wants to stop it. Last year’s fires tore through more than 6 million hectares of tropical primary forest, most of it in South America. Drought and El Niño played their part, but so did the same chronic weaknesses: fragmented governance, cheap credit for land clearance, and a market that rewards destruction faster than it rewards restraint. The causes are structural, which means the solutions will have to be as well. Power to those who already protect More than a third of the world’s intact forests lie on Indigenous and community lands. Where rights are recognized, deforestation typically drops. The logic is simple. People with secure tenure have reason to manage land for the long term. Yet only a fraction of community lands in the tropics have legal title. Recognition processes crawl through bureaucracy, while investors and speculators tend to advance quickly. A first-order intervention, therefore, is legal rather than technical: accelerating the transfer of rights. That means repairing broken land registries: mapping who actually owns what and granting legal title to the communities already…This article was originally published on Mongabay

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